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The Effect of U.S. Climate Policy on Financial Markets: An Event Study of the Inflation Reduction Act

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Listed:
  • Bauer, Michael
  • Offner, Eric
  • Rudebusch, Glenn

Abstract

The Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 (IRA) represents the largest climate policy action ever undertaken in the United States. Its legislative path was marked by two abrupt shifts as the likelihood of climate policy action fell to near zero and then rose to near certainty. We investigate equity price reactions to these two events, which represent major realizations of climate policy transition risk. Our results highlight the heterogeneous nature of climate policy risk exposure. We find sizable reactions that differ by industry as well as across firm-level measures of greenness such as environmental scores and emission intensities. While the financial market response to the IRA was economically significant, it did not lead to instability or financial stress, suggesting that transition risks posed by climate policies even as ambitious as the IRA may be manageable.

Suggested Citation

  • Bauer, Michael & Offner, Eric & Rudebusch, Glenn, 2024. "The Effect of U.S. Climate Policy on Financial Markets: An Event Study of the Inflation Reduction Act," CEPR Discussion Papers 19755, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19755
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    2. Florackis, Chris & Muktadir-Al-Mukit, Dewan & Sainani, Sushil & Zhang, Ziyang (John), 2025. "Stock market reaction to mandatory carbon disclosure announcements: The role of institutional investors," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    3. Basaglia, Piero & Berestycki, Clara & Carattini, Stefano & Dechezleprêtre, Antoine & Kruse, Tobias, 2025. "Climate Policy Uncertainty and Firms' and Investors' Behavior," CEPR Discussion Papers 20160, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    4. Donia Besher & Anirban Sengupta & Tanujit Chakraborty, 2025. "Probabilistic Forecasting of Climate Policy Uncertainty: The Role of Macro-financial Variables and Google Search Data," Papers 2507.12276, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2026.
    5. Wanidwaranan, Phasin & Wongkantarakorn, Jutamas & Padungsaksawasdi, Chaiyuth, 2025. "Climate policy uncertainty and trading behavior: Evidence from aggregate herd behavior," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    6. Fields, Micah & Lindequist, David, 2024. "Global spillovers of US climate policy risk: Evidence from EU carbon emissions futures," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    7. Elias Hasler, 2025. "Assessing the Global Impact of EU Carbon Pricing: Economic and Climate Spillovers," Working Papers 2025-01, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, Universität Innsbruck.
    8. Carattini, Stefano & Kim, Giseong & Melkadze, Givi & Pommeret, Aude, 2024. "Carbon taxes and tariffs, financial frictions, and international spillovers," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    9. Dunbar, Kwamie & Treku, Daniel N., 2025. "Do energy transition investment flows aid climate commitments?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    10. Fischer, Lion & Rapp, Marc Steffen & Zahner, Johannes, 2024. "Central banks sowing the seeds for a green financial sector? NGFS membership and market reactions," IMFS Working Paper Series 198, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    11. Malim Franco, João Pedro & Barasal Morales, Adriano & Poletti Laurini, Márcio, 2026. "When green turns exuberant: Bubble detection in clean-energy markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G38 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q58 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Government Policy

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