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Estimating HANK for Central Banks

Author

Listed:
  • Acharya, Sushant
  • Chen, William
  • Del Negro, Marco
  • Dogra, Keshav
  • Gleich, Aidan
  • Goyal, Shlok
  • Matlin, Ethan
  • Lee, Donggyu
  • Sarfati, Reca
  • Sengupta, Sikata

Abstract

We provide a toolkit for efficient online estimation of heterogeneous agent (HA) New Keynesian (NK) models based on Sequential Monte Carlo methods. We use this toolkit to compare the out-of-sample forecasting accuracy of a prominent HANK model, Bayer et al. (2022), to that of the representative agent (RA) NK model of Smets and Wouters (2007, SW). We find that HANK’s accuracy for real activity variables is notably inferior to that of SW. The results for consumption in particular are disappointing since the main difference between RANK and HANK is the replacement of the RA Euler equation with the aggregation of individual households’ consumption policy functions, which reflects inequality.

Suggested Citation

  • Acharya, Sushant & Chen, William & Del Negro, Marco & Dogra, Keshav & Gleich, Aidan & Goyal, Shlok & Matlin, Ethan & Lee, Donggyu & Sarfati, Reca & Sengupta, Sikata, 2023. "Estimating HANK for Central Banks," CEPR Discussion Papers 18407, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:18407
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    • Sushant Acharya & William Chen & Marco Del Negro & Keshav Dogra & Aidan Gleich & Shlok Goyal & Donggyu Lee & Ethan Matlin & Reca Sarfati & Sikata Sengupta, 2023. "Estimating HANK for Central Banks," Staff Reports 1071, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

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    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • D31 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Personal Income and Wealth Distribution
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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