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Optimal life-cycle fertility in a Barro-Becker economy

Author

Listed:
  • PESTIEAU, Pierre
  • PONTHIERE, Gregory

Abstract

Parenthood postponement is a key demographic trend of the last three decades. In order to rationalize that stylized fact, we extend the canonical model by Barro and Becker (Econometrica 57:481–501, 1989) to include two—instead of one—reproduction periods. We examine how the cost structure of early and late children in terms of time and goods affects the optimal fertility timing. Then, we identify conditions that guarantee the existence and uniqueness of a stationary equilibrium with a stationary cohort size. Finally, we examine how the model can rationalize the observed postponement of births, and we highlight two plausible causes: (1) a general rise in the cost of children in terms of goods and (2) a decline in the degree of family altruism.
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Suggested Citation

  • PESTIEAU, Pierre & PONTHIERE, Gregory, 2015. "Optimal life-cycle fertility in a Barro-Becker economy," LIDAM Reprints CORE 2634, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    • Handle: RePEc:cor:louvrp:2634
    Note: In : Journal of Population Economics, 28(1), 45-87, 2015
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    Cited by:

    1. Pierre Pestieau & Gregory Ponthiere, 2014. "Optimal fertility along the life cycle," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 55(1), pages 185-224, January.
    2. Francesca Barigozzi & Helmuth Cremer & Emmanuel Thibault, 2024. "The motherhood wage and income traps," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 37(4), pages 1-26, December.
    3. de la Croix, David & Pommeret, Aude, 2021. "Childbearing postponement, its option value, and the biological clock," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    4. Andras Simonovits, 2015. "Optimal Child-Related Transfers and Personal Income Tax with Endogenous Fertility," CERS-IE WORKING PAPERS 1524, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies.
    5. Pestieau, Pierre & Ponthiere, Gregory, 2016. "Long-term care and births timing," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 340-357.
    6. d'Albis, Hippolyte & Greulich, Angela & Ponthiere, Gregory, 2018. "Development, fertility and childbearing age: A Unified Growth Theory," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 461-494.
    7. Gregory Ponthiere, 2016. "The contribution of improved joint survival conditions to living standards: an equivalent consumption approach," Social Choice and Welfare, Springer;The Society for Social Choice and Welfare, vol. 46(2), pages 407-449, February.
    8. Bhalotra, Sonia & Venkataramani, Atheendar & Walther, Selma, 2018. "Fertility and labor market responses to reductions in mortality," ISER Working Paper Series 2018-15, Institute for Social and Economic Research.
    9. Johanna Etner & Natacha Raffin & Thomas Seegmuller, 2022. "Postponement, career development and fertility rebound," AMSE Working Papers 2225, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.
    10. Andras Simonovits, 2015. "Socially Optimal Child-Related Transfers and Personal Income Tax with Endogenous Fertility," CERS-IE WORKING PAPERS 1537, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies.
    11. Jianxun Lyu, 2025. "Optimal sequential fertility choices under discriminatory preferences," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 38(1), pages 1-51, March.
    12. Abad, Nicolas & Etner, Johanna & Raffin, Natacha & Seegmuller, Thomas, 2025. "New fertility patterns: The role of human versus physical capital," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 228(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D10 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - General
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

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