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Impacto economíco de un acuerdo parcial de libre comercio entre Colombia y Estados Unidos

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  • Clara Patricia Martín
  • Juan Mauricio Ramírez

Abstract

En este trabajo se hace una evaluación cuantitativa de los posibles efectos de un acuerdo de libre comercio (TLC) con Estados Unidos sobre la economía colombiana. Con este objetivo se utiliza un modelo de equilibrio general que representa el funcionamiento de la economía colombiana en condiciones de sustitución imperfecta entre los bienes domésticos y los bienes importados y exportados, rigideces salariales en el mercado laboral, y competencia imperfecta en los sectores industriales. Los resultados muestran que los efectos de un TLC sobre la economía colombiana dependen críticamente del grado en el cual se logren afectar las barreras no arancelarias vigentes en los Estados Unidos. Un TLC con disminución en estas barreras no arancelarias beneficiaría a los más pobres y tendría un efecto progresivo sobre la distribución del ingreso, contrario a lo que sostienen diferentes críticos. Sin embargo, esto depende del alcance del acuerdo. En especial, un TLC que mantenga las barreras no arancelarias sobre el sector agrícola en Estados Unidos tendría efectos negativos sobre los ingresos y el consumo de los trabajadores rurales, y en general sobre el sector agrícola colombiano.

Suggested Citation

  • Clara Patricia Martín & Juan Mauricio Ramírez, 2005. "Impacto economíco de un acuerdo parcial de libre comercio entre Colombia y Estados Unidos," Documentos de Investigación 2811, Cepal Naciones Unidas.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000140:002811
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Roland-Holst, David & Reinert, Kenneth A. & Shiells, Clinton R., 1994. "NAFTA liberalization and the role of nontariff barriers," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 137-168.
    2. Dirección de Estudios Económicos & Dirección de Desarrollo Empresarial, 2003. "Efectos de un acuerdo bilateral de libre comercio con Estados Unidos," Archivos de Economía 2426, Departamento Nacional de Planeación.
    3. Sergio Clavijo, 2004. "CRECIMIENTO, COMERCIO INTERNACIONAL E INSTITUCIONES: Reflexiones a Raíz de las Negociaciones TLC-ALCA," Borradores de Economia 307, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    4. Sergio Clavijo, 2004. "CRECIMIENTO, COMERCIO INTERNACIONAL E INSTITUCIONES: Reflexiones a Raíz de las Negociaciones TLC-ALCA," Borradores de Economia 2232, Banco de la Republica.
    5. Thomas F. Rutherford & Miles K. LIGHT, 2002. "A General Equilibrium Model for Tax Policy Analysis in Colombia: The MEGATAX Model," Archivos de Economía 11291, Departamento Nacional de Planeación.
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    Cited by:

    1. Arguello, Ricardo, 2009. "The Regional Impact of Discriminatory Trade Liberalization on Colombian Agriculture," Journal of Regional Analysis and Policy, Mid-Continent Regional Science Association, vol. 39(2), pages 1-19.

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