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Estructura fiscal de Colombia y ajustes requeridos (2010-2020)

  • Sergio Clavijo

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    Las marcadas restricciones constitucionales y legales, provenientes de la Carta Política de 1991, explican en buena medida las serias dificultades que enfrenta Colombia para contener su creciente gasto público, actualmente bordeando el 18% del PIB a nivel del gobierno central. A su vez, su estructura tributaria es anti-técnica y compleja, donde se combinan tasas de gravamen relativamente elevadas con un gran cúmulo de exenciones. Ello se traduce en bajos niveles de recaudo, de sólo un 13% del PIB en el gobierno nacional, y al añadir los ingresos de capital sus ingresos sólo ascienden al 14-15% del PIB. Así, el gobierno nacional enfrenta un déficit fiscal estructural del orden del 4% del PIB y un déficit primario (sin intereses) del -1% del PIB.Este documento analiza esa estructura fiscal y plantea soluciones tendientes a reducirlo a niveles manejables del 2% del PIB en el horizonte 2011-2015, al tiempo que se logra un superávit primario de +1% del PIB de forma sostenible. Las alternativas de política estarán en función de: i) la adopción de una reforma tributaria estructural; ii) el replanteamiento que se logre del manejo de las regalías minero-energéticas; y iii) el papel asignado a la llamada Regla Fiscal. Las simulaciones aquí presentadas sobre la aplicación de dicha regla fiscal indican que cabe esperar una convergencia del déficit del gobierno central hacia el -1% del PIB (2015-2020), donde en promedio la brecha del producto" jugaría un papel neutro, y la "brecha del sector minero-energético" inducirá restricciones a dicho déficit. Todo ello debe permitir una reducción de la relación Deuda/PIB del GC de niveles del 36% hacia el 24% del PIB, lo cual aseguraría poder mantener el grado de inversión."

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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/11445/321
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    Paper provided by FEDESARROLLO in its series INFORMES DE INVESTIGACIÓN with number 009604.

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    Length: 129
    Date of creation: 28 Apr 2011
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    Handle: RePEc:col:000124:009604
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    1. António Afonso & Ludger Schuknecht & Vito Tanzi, 2010. "Income distribution determinants and public spending efficiency," Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer, vol. 8(3), pages 367-389, September.
    2. Antonio Afonso & Ludger Schuknecht & Vito Tanzi, 2010. "Public sector efficiency: evidence for new EU member states and emerging markets," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(17), pages 2147-2164.
    3. Roberto Steiner & Irene Clavijo & Natalia Salazar, 2008. "Colombia´s Efforts at Achieving Inclusive and Sustainable Growth: The Road Traveled and the Challenges Ahead," INFORMES DE INVESTIGACIÓN 009058, FEDESARROLLO.
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