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¿Crecer para exportar o exportar para crecer? El caso del Valle del Cauca

Author

Listed:
  • Julio César Alonso
  • Carlos Ignacio Patiño F

Abstract

Este documento investiga la validez de la hipótesis de crecimiento económico basado en el incremento de las exportaciones empleando datos anuales para el Valle del Cauca durante el periodo 1960 – 2000. No se encuentra evidencia suficiente para validar la relación causal que supone la hipótesis de crecimiento económico basado en exportaciones. Se emplea un modelo VAR que incluye la producción y exportaciones departamentales, y dos variables de control, producción nacional y tasa de cambio real. Los resultados obtenidos suponen una relación causal que va de producción a exportaciones. Las funciones de impulso respuesta estimadas indican que la producción en el Valle del Cauca genera un impacto positivo en las exportaciones mientras que el hecho contrario no ocurre. Los resultados obtenidos para el Valle del Cauca son consistentes con los obtenidos a nivel nacional. This document investigates the validity of the export-led growth hypothesis using annual data for the Valle del Cauca (Colombia) from 1960 to 2000. No evidence is found to support the causal relation behind the export-led growth hypothesis. A VAR model that includes the regional output, the regional exports and, two control variables: national output and real exchange rate is employed. The results show a causal relation that goes from output to exports. The estimated impulse-response functions indicate that output in the Valle del Cauca generates a positive impact on exports while the opposite does not occur. The regional level results (Valle del Cauca) are consistent with the national level results (Colombia).

Suggested Citation

  • Julio César Alonso & Carlos Ignacio Patiño F, 2007. "¿Crecer para exportar o exportar para crecer? El caso del Valle del Cauca," Ensayos Sobre Economía Regional (ESER) 13868, Banco de la República - Economía Regional.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000103:013868
    DOI: 10.32468/eser.46
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    Cited by:

    1. Andrés Mauricio Gómez Sánchez & Zoraida Ramírez Gutiérrez, 2017. "Causalidad entre las importaciones y el crecimiento económico: evidencia empírica para el departamento del Cauca (Colombia)," Revista Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Universidad Militar Nueva Granada, vol. 25(2), pages 41-62, September.
    2. Ortiz, Carlos Humberto & Uribe, José Ignacio & Vivas, Harvy, 2010. "Empleo formal y empresas modernas," Perfil de Coyuntura Económica, Universidad de Antioquia, CIE, November.
    3. Juan Manuel Candelo Viafara, 2018. "Impactos indirectos de la tasa de cambio y los precios del petróleo en una economía no petrolera: aproximaciones VECM y VAR para el Valle del Cauca, Colombia," Revista Finanzas y Politica Economica, Universidad Católica de Colombia, vol. 10(2), pages 403-436, November.
    4. Javier Alejandro Vera Vargas & Werner Kristjanpoller Rodríguez, 2017. "Granger causality between exports, economic growth and electricity production: empirical evidence for Latin America," Lecturas de Economía, Universidad de Antioquia, Departamento de Economía, issue 86, pages 25-62, Enero - J.
    5. Vera Vargas, Javier Alejandro & Kristjanpoller Rodríguez, Werner, 2016. "Causalidad de Granger entre composición de las exportaciones, crecimiento económico y producción de energía eléctrica: evidencia empírica para Latinoamérica," Revista Lecturas de Economía, Universidad de Antioquia, CIE, issue 86, pages 25-62, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Export-led-growth; Growth-driven exports; Prueba de Causalidad; Exportaciones; Valle del Cauca;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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