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History, Expectations, and Public Policy: Economic Development in Eastern Germany

Author

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  • Andreas Schäfer
  • Thomas Steger

Abstract

Motivated by the process of economic development in Eastern Germany since the German reunification we set up a dynamic macroeconomic model of a small open economy where both capital and labor are mobile and there are increasing returns to scale at the aggregate level. The model features multiple equilibria as well as (local and global) indeterminacy. Expectations matter for resulting equilibrium dynamics, implying that economic confidence may be crucial for the process of economic development. Despite its simplicity, the model can replicate major empirical facts and bears a number of non-trivial implications.

Suggested Citation

  • Andreas Schäfer & Thomas Steger, 2010. "History, Expectations, and Public Policy: Economic Development in Eastern Germany," CESifo Working Paper Series 3184, CESifo Group Munich.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_3184
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    File URL: http://www.cesifo-group.de/DocDL/cesifo1_wp3184.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Aschauer, David Alan, 1989. "Is public expenditure productive?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 177-200, March.
    2. Burda, Michael C., 2008. "What kind of shock was it? Regional integration and structural change in Germany after unification," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 557-567, December.
    3. Michael C. Burda, 2006. "Factor Reallocation in Eastern Germany after Reunification," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(2), pages 368-374, May.
    4. Jennifer Hunt, 2006. "Staunching Emigration from East Germany: Age and the Determinants of Migration," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 4(5), pages 1014-1037, September.
    5. Michael Funke & Holge Strulik, 1999. "Growth and Convergence in a Two-Region Model of Unified Germany," CESifo Working Paper Series 206, CESifo Group Munich.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    increasing returns to scale; capital mobility; migration; multiple equilibria; indeterminacy; history vs. expectations; economic policy;

    JEL classification:

    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • H20 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - General
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

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