IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ces/ceswps/_2746.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Is Social Security behind the Collapse of Personal Saving?

Author

Listed:
  • Frank N. Caliendo

Abstract

This paper considers the quantitative role of growth in the size of the social security program in contributing to the collapse of personal saving in the U.S. over the last few decades. Using a calibrated, general equilibrium life-cycle model this paper shows that social security may not be to blame. Specifically, the model predicts that a 50-percent increase in the social security tax rate (as in the U.S. over the last half century) produces a modest decline in the personal saving rate from 10 percent down to 9.6 percent. This result runs counter to some popular opinion.

Suggested Citation

  • Frank N. Caliendo, 2009. "Is Social Security behind the Collapse of Personal Saving?," CESifo Working Paper Series 2746, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_2746
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.cesifo.org/DocDL/cesifo1_wp2746.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Reis, Ricardo, 2006. "Inattentive consumers," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(8), pages 1761-1800, November.
    2. Feldstein, Martin S, 1987. "Should Social Security Benefits Be Means Tested?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(3), pages 468-484, June.
    3. Bullard, James & Feigenbaum, James, 2007. "A leisurely reading of the life-cycle consumption data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(8), pages 2305-2320, November.
    4. Jonathan A. Parker, 2000. "Spendthrift in America? On Two Decades of Decline in the US Saving Rate," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1999, Volume 14, pages 317-387, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Jagadeesh Gokhale & Laurence J. Kotlikoff & John Sabelhaus, 1996. "Understanding the Postwar Decline in U.S. Saving: A Cohort Analysis," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(1), pages 315-407.
    6. A Lusardi & J Skinner & S Venti, 2001. "Saving puzzles and saving policies in the United States," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 17(1), pages 95-115, Spring.
    7. Modigliani, Franco, 1986. "Life Cycle, Individual Thrift, and the Wealth of Nations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(3), pages 297-313, June.
    8. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Jonathan A. Parker, 2002. "Consumption Over the Life Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(1), pages 47-89, January.
    9. Martin Feldstein, 1985. "The Optimal Level of Social Security Benefits," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 100(2), pages 303-320.
    10. Alicia H. Munnell & Francesca N. Golub-Sass & Andrew Varani, 2005. "How Much Is the Working-Age Population Saving?," Working Papers, Center for Retirement Research at Boston College wp2005-12, Center for Retirement Research, revised Oct 2005.
    11. William G. Gale & John Sabelhaus, 1999. "Perspectives on the Household Saving Rate," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 30(1), pages 181-224.
    12. Kevin J. Lansing, 2005. "Spendthrift nation," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue nov10.
    13. Caliendo, Frank N. & Gahramanov, Emin, 2008. "Hunting the unobservables for optimal social security: a general equilibrium approach," Working Papers eco_2008_10, Deakin University, Department of Economics.
    14. James Feigenbaum, 2006. "Precautionary Saving Unfettered," Working Paper 227, Department of Economics, University of Pittsburgh, revised Jan 2006.
    15. Feigenbaum, James, 2008. "Can mortality risk explain the consumption hump?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 844-872, September.
    16. Feldstein, Martin S, 1974. "Social Security, Induced Retirement, and Aggregate Capital Accumulation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(5), pages 905-926, Sept./Oct.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Park, Hyeon & Feigenbaum, James, 2018. "Bounded rationality, lifecycle consumption, and Social Security," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 65-105.
    2. T. Findley & Frank Caliendo, 2009. "Short horizons, time inconsistency, and optimal social security," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 16(4), pages 487-513, August.
    3. Bagchi, Shantanu, 2015. "Labor supply and the optimality of Social Security," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 167-185.
    4. Martin Browning & Thomas F. Crossley, 2001. "The Life-Cycle Model of Consumption and Saving," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(3), pages 3-22, Summer.
    5. Feigenbaum, James & Caliendo, Frank N., 2010. "Optimal irrational behavior in continuous time," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(10), pages 1907-1922, October.
    6. Han, Nan-Wei & Hung, Mao-Wei, 2021. "The annuity puzzle and consumption hump under ambiguous life expectancy," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 76-88.
    7. Caliendo, Frank & Huang, Kevin X.D., 2008. "Overconfidence and consumption over the life cycle," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1347-1369, December.
    8. Kevin X. D. Huang & Frank Caliendo, 2011. "Rationalizing Multiple Consumption-Saving Puzzles in a Unified Framework," Frontiers of Economics in China-Selected Publications from Chinese Universities, Higher Education Press, vol. 6(3), pages 359-388, September.
    9. T. Findley & Frank Caliendo, 2008. "The behavioral justification for public pensions: a survey," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 32(4), pages 409-425, October.
    10. Kevin X.D. Huang & Frank Caliendo, 2007. "Rationalizing Seven Consumption-Saving Puzzles in a Unified Framework," Vanderbilt University Department of Economics Working Papers 0716, Vanderbilt University Department of Economics.
    11. Shantanu Bagchi, 2011. "Can overconfidence explain the consumption hump?," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 35(1), pages 41-70, January.
    12. James Feigenbaum & Geng Li, 2010. "A semiparametric characterization of income uncertainty over the life cycle," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2010-42, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    13. Park, Hyeon, 2023. "Bounded rationality and optimal retirement age," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    14. Bunting, David, 2009. "The saving decline: Macro-facts, micro-behavior," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 70(1-2), pages 282-295, May.
    15. Chanda, Areendam, 2008. "The rise in returns to education and the decline in household savings," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 436-469, February.
    16. Gary Hansen & Selahattin Imrohoroglu, 2008. "Consumption over the Life Cycle: The Role of Annuities," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 11(3), pages 566-583, July.
    17. Hurst, Erik & Willen, Paul, 2007. "Social security and unsecured debt," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(7-8), pages 1273-1297, August.
    18. Feigenbaum James A. & Li Geng, 2012. "Life Cycle Dynamics of Income Uncertainty and Consumption," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(1), pages 1-49, May.
    19. Bagchi Shantanu, 2017. "Can removing the tax cap save Social Security?," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 17(2), pages 1-28, June.
    20. Caliendo, Frank & Aadland, David, 2007. "Short-term planning and the life-cycle consumption puzzle," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 1392-1415, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    NIPA personal saving rate; social security; life-cycle permanent-income model; general equilibrium calibration;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_2746. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Klaus Wohlrabe (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cesifde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.