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Análisis demográfico de la Violencia en Colombia

Author

Listed:
  • Julio E. Romero-Prieto

    () (Banco de la República de Colombia)

  • Adolfo Meisel-Roca

Abstract

En este artículo se argumenta que en la historiografía colombiana existe falta de consenso en cuanto a la duración y al número de víctimas de la Violencia de mediados del siglo XX. Ambas controversias son resueltas analizando las características demográficas de la población colombiana. A partir de censos y registros vitales de la época, se estimaron algunos componentes básicos: tablas de vida, tasas de natalidad y tasas específicas de muertes violentas. Considerando el tamaño y la distribución de la población colombiana, se estimó un máximo de 57.737 víctimas mortales en el periodo 1949-58. Teniendo en cuentas que no todas las muertes violentas tendrían una causa política, esta cifra se reduce a 39.142 bajo supuestos más conservadores. Por lo tanto, las cifras estimadas en este artículo controvierten las más de 200 mil víctimas que usualmente se citan en la literatura, pero que carecen de soporte cuantitativo. Aunque fueron menos muertes que las usualmente aceptadas, los avances que permitieron reducir la mortalidad durante el siglo XX se vieron parcialmente atenuados por el exceso de mortalidad durante los años de la Violencia. **** ABSTRACT: This paper argues that there is a lack of consensus in the Colombian historiography regarding the duration and the number of victims of the political violence of the mid-twentieth century. Demographic characteristics of the Colombian population were analyzed in order to examine both controversies. Based on population censuses and vital records of the time, some basic components were estimated: life tables, birth rates, and specific rates of violent deaths. Considering the size and distribution of the Colombian population, a maximum of 57,737 deaths were estimated for the period 1949-58. Inasmuch as not all violent deaths would have a political cause, the death toll is estimated to be 39,142 people under more conservative assumptions. Therefore, the figures estimated in this paper rebut the more than 200 thousand victims that are usually cited in the literature without quantitative support. Although there were fewer deaths than those usually accepted, the advances that allowed reducing mortality during the 20th century were partially attenuated by the excess mortality during the years of la Violencia.

Suggested Citation

  • Julio E. Romero-Prieto & Adolfo Meisel-Roca, 2019. "Análisis demográfico de la Violencia en Colombia," Cuadernos de Historia Económica 50, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  • Handle: RePEc:bdr:cheedt:50
    DOI: 10.32468/chee.50
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    File URL: https://doi.org/10.32468/chee.50
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Juliana Jaramillo-Echeverri & Adolfo Meisel-Roca & María Teresa Ramírez-Giraldo, 2019. "More than 100 years of improvements in living standards: the case of Colombia," Cliometrica, Springer;Cliometric Society (Association Francaise de Cliométrie), vol. 13(3), pages 323-366, September.
    2. Gaviria, Alejandro, 2000. "Increasing returns and the evolution of violent crime: the case of Colombia," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 1-25, February.
    3. John Wilmoth & Sarah Zureick & Vladimir Canudas-Romo & Mie Inoue & Cheryl Sawyer, 2012. "A flexible two-dimensional mortality model for use in indirect estimation," Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 66(1), pages 1-28.
    4. Weinert, Richard S., 1966. "Violence in Pre-Modern Societies: Rural Colombia," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 60(2), pages 340-347, June.
    5. Gilles Pison & Bruno Masquelier & Almamy Malick Kante & Cheikh Tidiane Ndiaye & Laetitia Douillot & Géraldine Duthé & Cheikh Sokhna & Valerie Delaunay & Stephane Helleringer, 2018. "Estimating mortality from external causes using data from retrospective surveys: A validation study in Niakhar (Senegal)," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 38(32), pages 879-896.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jaime Bonet-Morón & Diana Ricciulli-Marín, 2019. "Planificación urbana en América Latina: el caso de Valledupar (Colombia)," Cuadernos de Historia Económica 51, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    2. Jaime Bonet-Morón & Diana Ricciulli-Marín, 2019. "Planificación urbana en América Latina: el caso de Valledupar (Colombia)," Cuadernos de Historia Económica 017370, Banco de la República - Economía Regional.
    3. Ana María Iregui-Bohórquez & Ligia Alba Melo-Becerra & María Teresa Ramírez-Giraldo & Ana María Tribín-Uribe, 2020. "The path to gender equality in Colombia: Are we there yet?," Borradores de Economia 1131, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Historia de Colombia; mortalidad; violencia; métodos demográficos; censos y registros vitales; History of Colombia; mortality; violence; demographic methods; censuses and vital records.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • N36 - Economic History - - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy - - - Latin America; Caribbean
    • N46 - Economic History - - Government, War, Law, International Relations, and Regulation - - - Latin America; Caribbean
    • J10 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - General

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