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Dinámica y determinantes del consumo de los hogares en Colombia durante la postpandemia del Covid-19

Author

Listed:
  • DEPE-SGEE
  • Fernando Arias-Rodríguez
  • Ignacio Lozano-Espitia
  • Clark Granger
  • Diego Vásquez-Escobar
  • Carmiña O. Vargas
  • Norberto Rodríguez-Niño
  • Andrés Sánchez-Jabba

Abstract

En este documento se analiza el comportamiento del consumo de los hogares en Colombia durante la postpandemia del COVID-19. Inicialmente se presenta una comparación regional destacando la severidad de los confinamientos y las respuestas fiscales de los gobiernos. Luego, se describe la dinámica de las principales canastas de consumo y los ítems de gasto. El documento se concentra en identificar y evaluar los principales determinantes macroeconómicos del consumo, destacándose el ingreso disponible de las familias, su ahorro y riqueza, la tasa de interés real y el crédito, las remesas y las transferencias monetarias del gobierno. También se provee información de los días sin IVA. Entre los resultados se resalta el rebote excepcional que registró el consumo en 2021 y 2022, beneficiado por todos estos factores. Para 2023 se prevé una desaceleración del consumo explicado, entre otros, por la reversión de sus principales determinantes. **** ABSTRACT: This paper analyses the behavior of household consumption in Colombia during Covid-19 post pandemic. Initially, it introduces a regional comparison emphasizing in the severity of lockdown and the government fiscal responses. Then, it describes the dynamics of the main consumption baskets and expenditure items. The paper focuses on the main macroeconomic determinants of consumption, emphasizing in the available income of households, their savings and wealth, the real interest rate and credit, the remittances and monetary transfer from government. The paper also provide evidence about days without VAT. Among the results is highlighted the exceptional rebound in consumption between 2021 and 2022, benefited by all these factors. Finally, a slowdown in consumption is projected for 2023, driven in part by the reversal of its main determinants among other factors.

Suggested Citation

  • DEPE-SGEE & Fernando Arias-Rodríguez & Ignacio Lozano-Espitia & Clark Granger & Diego Vásquez-Escobar & Carmiña O. Vargas & Norberto Rodríguez-Niño & Andrés Sánchez-Jabba, 2023. "Dinámica y determinantes del consumo de los hogares en Colombia durante la postpandemia del Covid-19," Borradores de Economia 1242, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:1242
    DOI: 10.32468/be.1242
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Phillips, Peter C B, 1995. "Fully Modified Least Squares and Vector Autoregression," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 63(5), pages 1023-1078, September.
    2. Peter C. B. Phillips & Bruce E. Hansen, 1990. "Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables Regression with I(1) Processes," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 57(1), pages 99-125.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Consumo privado; ciclo económico; Covid-19; FMOLS; modelos de cointegración; Private Consumption; Economic Cycle; Covid-19; FMOLS; Cointegration Models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E66 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General Outlook and Conditions
    • H54 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Infrastructures
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C30 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - General

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