IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bdr/borrec/1235.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Inversión en maquinaria y equipo en Colombia: determinantes de largo plazo y efectos del COVID 19 sobre su evolución

Author

Listed:
  • DEPE-SGEE
  • Diego Vásquez-Escobar
  • Clark Granger
  • Norberto Rodríguez-Niño
  • Andrés Sánchez-Jabba
  • Carmiña O. Vargas
  • Fernando Arias-Rodríguez
  • Ignacio Lozano-Espitia

Abstract

El choque ocasionado por el COVID-19 generó un desplome de la inversión en Colombia que se tradujo en una brecha negativa de -2,8% del PIB en el segundo trimestre de 2020. A nivel regional, este episodio afectó en mayor grado a Perú, mientras que países como México, Chile y Brasil sufrieron menores detrimentos. La reactivación de la inversión en Colombia fue relativamente más lenta frente a sus pares y ha sido impulsada por el buen desempeño de las compras de maquinaria y equipo. En este documento se analizan los factores macro que determinan este tipo de inversión y su comportamiento durante la pandemia. Los resultados confirman los efectos esperados: las compras de maquinaria y equipo se reducen con los aumentos del costo de uso del capital y de la tasa de cambio real, y aumentan con el crecimiento de la actividad económica y la confianza de los empresarios. Estos últimos generan impactos más duraderos. Otras variables que podrían influir las decisiones de inversión, como el acceso al crédito y el grado de apertura, son usadas como variables de control. **** ABSTRACT: Colombia saw a drop in investment as a result of the COVID-19 shock, which resulted in a negative gap in the second quarter of 2020 of -2.8% of the GDP. In the context of the region, Peru was hardest hit, while countries such as Mexico, Chile, and Brazil suffered minor setbacks. The recovery of investment in Colombia has been relatively slow, although strengthened by sustained and growing dynamics in machinery and equipment purchases. This paper analyzes the macroeconomic factors that explain this type of investment and its behavior during the pandemic. The results confirm the expected effects: purchases of machinery and equipment fall when the cost of capital use and the real exchange rate rise, while increase in response to rise in economic activity and industrial confidence, which have longer-lasting effects. Control variables include additional factors that may affect investment decisions, such as loan availability and degree of openness.

Suggested Citation

  • DEPE-SGEE & Diego Vásquez-Escobar & Clark Granger & Norberto Rodríguez-Niño & Andrés Sánchez-Jabba & Carmiña O. Vargas & Fernando Arias-Rodríguez & Ignacio Lozano-Espitia, 2023. "Inversión en maquinaria y equipo en Colombia: determinantes de largo plazo y efectos del COVID 19 sobre su evolución," Borradores de Economia 1235, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:1235
    DOI: 10.32468/be.1235
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.32468/be.1235
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.32468/be.1235?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ligia Alba Melo-Becerra & Javier Ávila Mahecha & Jorge Enrique Ramos-Forero, 2017. "The Effect of Corporate Taxes on Investment: Evidence from the Colombian Firms," IHEID Working Papers 10-2017, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    2. Mauricio Cárdenas S. & Mauricio Olivera G., 1995. "La Crítica de Lucas y la inversión en Colombia: Nueva Evidencia," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 14(27), pages 95-138, June.
    3. Ricardo Ffrench-Davis & Diego Vivanco, 2016. "Depreciación del Capital Físico, Inversión Neta y Producto Interno Neto," Working Papers wp425, University of Chile, Department of Economics.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Alejandro López-Vera & Andrés D. Pinchao-Rosero & Norberto Rodríguez-Niño, 2018. "Non-Linear Fiscal Multipliers for Public Expenditure and Tax Revenue in Colombia," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 36(85), pages 48-64, April.
    2. Mauricio Cardenas & Raquel Bernal, 2004. "Determinants of Labor Demand in Colombia. 1976-1996," NBER Chapters, in: Law and Employment: Lessons from Latin America and the Caribbean, pages 229-272, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Ligia Alba Melo-Becerra & Héctor Zárate-Solano & Andrés Camilo Gómez-Molina, 2018. "Elasticidad del ingreso corporativo gravable en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 1046, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    4. Ligia Alba Melo-Becerra & Javier Ávila Mahecha & Jorge Enrique Ramos-Forero, 2017. "The Effect of Corporate Taxes on Investment: Evidence from the Colombian Firms," IHEID Working Papers 10-2017, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    5. Catalina Delgado González, 2004. "Inversión y restricciones crediticias en Colombia en la década de los noventa," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 22(47), pages 8-55, December.
    6. Ana María Iregui-Bohórquez & Ligia Alba Melo-Becerra & Antonio José Orozco-Gallo, 2020. "Corporate taxes and firms' performance: A meta-frontier approach," Borradores de Economia 1116, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    7. Fernández Andrés, 2003. "Reformas estructurales, impacto macroeconómico y política monetaria en Colombia," Revista Desarrollo y Sociedad, Universidad de los Andes,Facultad de Economía, CEDE, March.
    8. Alves, Pana & Dejuan, Daniel & Maurin, Laurent, 2019. "Can survey-based information help to assess investment gaps in the EU?," EIB Working Papers 2019/04, European Investment Bank (EIB).
    9. Mauricio Cárdenas & Andrés Escobar Arango, 1997. "Determinantes del ahorro en Colombia: 1925 - 1994," Coyuntura Económica, Fedesarrollo, June.
    10. Carlos Esteban Posada P., 1995. "Ahorro Y Modelos Macroeconómicos," Borradores de Economia 1956, Banco de la Republica.
    11. Cardenas, Mauricio & Escobar, Andres, 1998. "Saving determinants in Colombia: 1925-1994," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 5-44, October.
    12. Carlos Esteban Posada, 2018. "Efectos de reducir el impuesto a la ganancia (equilibrio parcial versus equilibrio general)," Documentos de Trabajo de Valor Público 16594, Universidad EAFIT.
    13. Olivera, Mauricio, 1996. "Tasas marginales efectivas de tributación en Colombia," Sede de la CEPAL en Santiago (Estudios e Investigaciones) 34280, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    14. María Angélica Arbeláez & Alejandro Becerra & Miguel Benítez, 2021. "Contribución fiscal y tributación efectiva de la industria manufacturera en Colombia," Informes de Investigación 19143, Fedesarrollo.
    15. -, 2018. "Economic Survey of Latin America and the Caribbean 2018. Evolution of investment in Latin America and the Caribbean: stylized facts, determinants and policy challenges," Estudio Económico de América Latina y el Caribe, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), number 43965 edited by Eclac, September.
    16. Diana Marcela Jiménez Restrepo & Carlos Humberto Ortiz Quevedo & José Ignacio Uribe, 2019. "Una reformulación de la ley de Okun para Colombia," Revista de Economía del Caribe 18093, Universidad del Norte.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inversión; Maquinaria y Equipo; capital; FMOLS; modelos de cointegración; Investment; Machinery and Equipment; capital; FMOLS; cointegration models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E66 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General Outlook and Conditions
    • H54 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Infrastructures
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C30 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:1235. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Clorith Angélica Bahos Olivera (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/brcgvco.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.