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Inversión en maquinaria y equipo en Colombia: determinantes de largo plazo y efectos del COVID 19 sobre su evolución

Author

Listed:
  • DEPE-SGEE
  • Diego Vásquez-Escobar
  • Clark Granger
  • Norberto Rodríguez-Niño
  • Andrés Sánchez-Jabba
  • Carmiña O. Vargas
  • Fernando Arias-Rodríguez
  • Ignacio Lozano-Espitia

Abstract

El choque ocasionado por el COVID-19 generó un desplome de la inversión en Colombia que se tradujo en una brecha negativa de -2,8% del PIB en el segundo trimestre de 2020. A nivel regional, este episodio afectó en mayor grado a Perú, mientras que países como México, Chile y Brasil sufrieron menores detrimentos. La reactivación de la inversión en Colombia fue relativamente más lenta frente a sus pares y ha sido impulsada por el buen desempeño de las compras de maquinaria y equipo. En este documento se analizan los factores macro que determinan este tipo de inversión y su comportamiento durante la pandemia. Los resultados confirman los efectos esperados: las compras de maquinaria y equipo se reducen con los aumentos del costo de uso del capital y de la tasa de cambio real, y aumentan con el crecimiento de la actividad económica y la confianza de los empresarios. Estos últimos generan impactos más duraderos. Otras variables que podrían influir las decisiones de inversión, como el acceso al crédito y el grado de apertura, son usadas como variables de control. **** ABSTRACT: Colombia saw a drop in investment as a result of the COVID-19 shock, which resulted in a negative gap in the second quarter of 2020 of -2.8% of the GDP. In the context of the region, Peru was hardest hit, while countries such as Mexico, Chile, and Brazil suffered minor setbacks. The recovery of investment in Colombia has been relatively slow, although strengthened by sustained and growing dynamics in machinery and equipment purchases. This paper analyzes the macroeconomic factors that explain this type of investment and its behavior during the pandemic. The results confirm the expected effects: purchases of machinery and equipment fall when the cost of capital use and the real exchange rate rise, while increase in response to rise in economic activity and industrial confidence, which have longer-lasting effects. Control variables include additional factors that may affect investment decisions, such as loan availability and degree of openness.

Suggested Citation

  • DEPE-SGEE & Diego Vásquez-Escobar & Clark Granger & Norberto Rodríguez-Niño & Andrés Sánchez-Jabba & Carmiña O. Vargas & Fernando Arias-Rodríguez & Ignacio Lozano-Espitia, 2023. "Inversión en maquinaria y equipo en Colombia: determinantes de largo plazo y efectos del COVID 19 sobre su evolución," Borradores de Economia 1235, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:1235
    DOI: 10.32468/be.1235
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mauricio Cárdenas S. & Mauricio Olivera G., 1995. "La Crítica de Lucas y la inversión en Colombia: Nueva Evidencia," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 14(27), pages 95-138, June.
    2. Ricardo Ffrench-Davis & Diego Vivanco, 2016. "Depreciación del Capital Físico, Inversión Neta y Producto Interno Neto," Working Papers wp425, University of Chile, Department of Economics.
    3. Ligia Alba Melo-Becerra & Javier Ávila Mahecha & Jorge Enrique Ramos-Forero, 2017. "The Effect of Corporate Taxes on Investment: Evidence from the Colombian Firms," IHEID Working Papers 10-2017, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inversión; Maquinaria y Equipo; capital; FMOLS; modelos de cointegración; Investment; Machinery and Equipment; capital; FMOLS; cointegration models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E66 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General Outlook and Conditions
    • H54 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Infrastructures
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C30 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - General

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