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Assessing the risks of asset overvaluation: models and challenges

Author

Listed:
  • Sara Cecchetti

    (Bank of Italy)

  • Marco Taboga

    (Bank of Italy)

Abstract

We propose methods to compute confidence bands for the fundamental values of stocks and corporate bonds. These methods take into account uncertainty about future cash flows and about the discount factors used to discount the cash flows. We use them to assess the current degree of under-/over-valuation of asset prices. We find no evidence of over-valuation of the stocks and corporate bonds of the major economies.

Suggested Citation

  • Sara Cecchetti & Marco Taboga, 2017. "Assessing the risks of asset overvaluation: models and challenges," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1114, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_1114_17
    as

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    File URL: http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2017/2017-1114/en_tema_1114.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Stefano Neri & Stefano Siviero, 2019. "The non-standard monetary policy measures of the ECB: motivations, effectiveness and risks," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 486, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    2. Pierpaolo Benigno & Paolo Canofari & Giovanni Di Bartolomeo & Marcello Messori, 2023. "The ECB's asset purchase programme: Theory, effects, and risks," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(3), pages 890-914, July.
    3. Sara Cecchetti, 2019. "A Quantitative Analysis of Risk Premia in the Corporate Bond Market," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(1), pages 1-33, December.
    4. Sara Cecchetti, 2017. "A quantitative analysis of risk premia in the corporate bond market," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1141, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • B26 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - Financial Economics
    • C02 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Mathematical Economics

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