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Heterogeneity in fertility and newborn health during the COVID-19 pandemic

Author

Listed:
  • Edoardo Frattola

    (Bank of Italy)

  • Marco Tonello

    (Bank of Italy)

Abstract

In this paper, we leverage newly available rich administrative data to study the heterogeneous evolution of fertility and newborn health during the pandemic. We focus on Tuscany, a representative region of Italy, which was one of the first countries to experience the severe impact of the COVID-19 outbreak in early 2020. Our findings indicate a decline in the number of births relative to the pre-pandemic trend in late 2020 and early 2021, roughly nine to twelve months after the pandemic onset. However, starting in March 2021, birth numbers consistently exceeded the pre-pandemic trend, resulting in a cumulative 'baby bump' compared with the counterfactual scenario. This aggregate increase conceals significant heterogeneity across sociodemographic groups, with positive deviations entirely driven by native, educated, and employed parents. During the same period, newborn health indicators showed no signs of deterioration and, if anything, improved slightly.

Suggested Citation

  • Edoardo Frattola & Marco Tonello, 2024. "Heterogeneity in fertility and newborn health during the COVID-19 pandemic," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 895, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_895_24
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Giacomo Caracciolo & Salvatore Lo Bello & Dario Pellegrino, 2021. "An assessment on the potential impact of COVID-19 on the Italian demographic structure," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 622, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    2. Jessamyn Schaller & Price Fishback & Kelli Marquardt, 2020. "Local Economic Conditions and Fertility from the Great Depression through the Great Recession," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 110, pages 236-240, May.
    3. Raffaele Guetto & Giacomo Bazzani & Daniele Vignoli, 2022. "Narratives of the future and fertility decision-making in uncertain times. An application to the COVID-19 pandemic," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 20(1), pages 223-260.
    4. Joshua Wilde & Wei Chen & Sophie Lohmann, 2020. "COVID-19 and the future of US fertility: what can we learn from Google?," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2020-034, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • J10 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - General
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth

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