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Reflexivity from Hierarchical Causality

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  • Tim Gebbie

Abstract

Complex systems are often organised into hierarchies whose internal interactions are stronger or faster than interactions across levels. When markets are treated as genuinely multilevel systems it becomes natural to represent them as systems with hierarchical causality. Here we show that reflexivity can be formulated within such a discrete hierarchical causal system; but one in which a higher-level actor state restricts the lower-level transition kernels that remain admissible. Then event dynamics can be separated from calendar embeddings: a set-valued actor-conditioned correspondence can be used to define the admissible family of event kernels, while joint state and waiting-time laws can be used to determine compatible timing to then natural demonstrate reflexivity. A selected event-state law need not determine a unique calendar embedding. Locally, uniqueness of the joint event or timing specification requires uniqueness of both the admissible event kernel and its compatible timing law. Reflexivity is thus the endogenous closure of a hierarchical constraint loop, while timing and projection can generate calendar-time memory or causal ambiguity even for Markov event dynamics.

Suggested Citation

  • Tim Gebbie, 2026. "Reflexivity from Hierarchical Causality," Papers 2608.22497, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2026.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2608.22497
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Tim Gebbie, 2026. "A Simple Hierarchical Causality Primer," Papers 2606.01979, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2026.
    2. Wyart, Matthieu & Bouchaud, Jean-Philippe, 2007. "Self-referential behaviour, overreaction and conventions in financial markets," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 1-24, May.
    3. Palatella, Luigi, 2010. "A reflexive toy-model for financial market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 389(2), pages 315-322.
    4. Chris Angstmann & Tim Gebbie, 2026. "Reaction-boundary variance and adjoint-consistent local-volatility projection," Papers 2607.05011, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2026.
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