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Transaction Costs and Speed in the Ethereum Ecosystem: Scalability of the Mainnet and Layer 2s

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  • Meghan Ambrosia
  • Bruce Mizrach

Abstract

We study the evolution of transaction speed and fees from January 2024 through March 2026, comparing Ethereum Mainnet and its Layer 2 (L2) networks, as well as Solana and Polygon. Ethereum has undergone upgrades that have increased block size and blob count. These upgrades have doubled transactions per second (TPS) on both the Mainnet and the L2 networks. Mainnet median fees have fallen from over \$2 to under \$0.02, and L2 median fees have fallen more than 95% from \$0.05 to \$0.0015. We forecast that Mainnet median fees will converge with Solana in August 2027, but TPS will remain below 100 until 2034. The L1 Strawmap, proposing EIP-7938, a potential exponential increase in the gas limit, brings the Mainnet to only 100 TPS in January 2028. With continued blob expansion, L2s will surpass Solana TPS in March 2029 and have lower median fees by October 2026.

Suggested Citation

  • Meghan Ambrosia & Bruce Mizrach, 2026. "Transaction Costs and Speed in the Ethereum Ecosystem: Scalability of the Mainnet and Layer 2s," Papers 2606.22206, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2606.22206
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Alexander Karaivanov & Shayan Zarifian, 2025. "Economic determinants of Ethereum transaction fees in the priority fee and proof of stake periods," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 57(58), pages 10237-10255, December.
    2. Jain, Archana & Jain, Chinmay & Krystyniak, Karolina, 2023. "Blockchain transaction fee and Ethereum Merge," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PC).
    3. Anil Donmez & Alexander Karaivanov, 2022. "Transaction fee economics in the Ethereum blockchain," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 60(1), pages 265-292, January.
    4. José Eduardo de Azevedo Sousa & Vinícius Oliveira & Júlia Valadares & Glauber Dias Gonçalves & Saulo Moraes Villela & Heder Soares Bernardino & Alex Borges Vieira, 2021. "An analysis of the fees and pending time correlation in Ethereum," International Journal of Network Management, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 31(3), May.
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