Transactions Market in Bitcoin: Empirical Analysis of the Demand and Supply Block Space Curves

Blockchain transactions market is expected to gain momentum in the coming years, in a context with gradual transition to fee-regime in many cryptocurrencies, the expansion of blockchain technology to different business areas and the requirement for high transaction throughput in new blockchain-based applications. In this context, the economic assessment of the supply and demand curves defining the transactions market is key to recognize its potential weaknesses, but also to minimize risks and to improve operational efficiency when designing or upgrading blockchain-based applications. The research covers a gap by conducting an empirical analysis of these curves in Bitcoin, based on an extensive dataset spanning two time periods in 2021 and 2023 selected as having different levels of Mempool congestion. The empirical findings support the understanding of why Bitcoin transaction fees are subject to high volatility and how the protocol evolutions made to date have shifted the supply curve. The demand curve, although relatively elastic around the equilibrium price, turns out to be extremely dynamic. On the other hand, the inelasticity of the supply curve, described by an exponential distribution, explains the sharp variations in transaction fees observed under demand shocks. The results bring to light the importance of the transactions market layout as an element of control over the intrinsic problems associated with an imperfect competition, whereas additional sustainability and security aspects beyond pure economic considerations are to be taken into account in the design of this market.