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Data-driven Feynman-Kac Discovery with Applications to Prediction and Data Generation

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  • Qi Feng
  • Guang Lin
  • Purav Matlia
  • Denny Serdarevic

Abstract

In this paper, we propose a novel data-driven framework for discovering probabilistic laws underlying the Feynman-Kac formula. Specifically, we introduce the first stochastic SINDy method formulated under the risk-neutral probability measure to recover the backward stochastic differential equation (BSDE) from a single pair of stock and option trajectories. Unlike existing approaches to identifying stochastic differential equations-which typically require ergodicity-our framework leverages the risk-neutral measure, thereby eliminating the ergodicity assumption and enabling BSDE recovery from limited financial time series data. Using this algorithm, we are able not only to make forward-looking predictions but also to generate new synthetic data paths consistent with the underlying probabilistic law.

Suggested Citation

  • Qi Feng & Guang Lin & Purav Matlia & Denny Serdarevic, 2025. "Data-driven Feynman-Kac Discovery with Applications to Prediction and Data Generation," Papers 2511.08606, arXiv.org.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2511.08606
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