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Signature-Informed Transformer for Asset Allocation

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  • Yoontae Hwang
  • Stefan Zohren

Abstract

Modern deep learning for asset allocation typically separates forecasting from optimization. We argue this creates a fundamental mismatch where minimizing prediction errors fails to yield robust portfolios. We propose the Signature Informed Transformer to address this by unifying feature extraction and decision making into a single policy. Our model employs path signatures to encode complex path dependencies and introduces a specialized attention mechanism that targets geometric asset relationships. By directly minimizing the Conditional Value at Risk we ensure the training objective aligns with financial goals. We prove that our attention module rigorously amplifies signature derived signals. Experiments across diverse equity universes show our approach significantly outperforms both traditional strategies and advanced forecasting baselines. The code is available at: https://anonymous.4open.science/r/Signature-Informed-Transformer-For-Asset-Allocation-DB88

Suggested Citation

  • Yoontae Hwang & Stefan Zohren, 2025. "Signature-Informed Transformer for Asset Allocation," Papers 2510.03129, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2026.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2510.03129
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Yoontae Hwang & Yaxuan Kong & Stefan Zohren & Yongjae Lee, 2025. "Decision-informed Neural Networks with Large Language Model Integration for Portfolio Optimization," Papers 2502.00828, arXiv.org.
    2. Deborah Miori & Mihai Cucuringu, 2022. "Returns-Driven Macro Regimes and Characteristic Lead-Lag Behaviour between Asset Classes," Papers 2209.00268, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2022.
    3. R. Cont, 2001. "Empirical properties of asset returns: stylized facts and statistical issues," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(2), pages 223-236.
    4. Munki Chung & Yongjae Lee & Jang Ho Kim & Woo Chang Kim & Frank J. Fabozzi, 2022. "The effects of errors in means, variances, and correlations on the mean-variance framework," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(10), pages 1893-1903, October.
    5. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    6. Lim, Bryan & Arık, Sercan Ö. & Loeff, Nicolas & Pfister, Tomas, 2021. "Temporal Fusion Transformers for interpretable multi-horizon time series forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1748-1764.
    7. Fischer, Thomas & Krauss, Christopher, 2018. "Deep learning with long short-term memory networks for financial market predictions," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 270(2), pages 654-669.
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