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From fields to fuel: analyzing the global economic and emissions potential of agricultural pellets, informed by a case study

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  • Sebastian G. Nosenzo
  • Rafael Kelman

Abstract

Agricultural residues represent a vast, underutilized resource for renewable energy. This study combines empirical analysis from 179 countries with a case study of a pelletization facility to evaluate the global potential of agricultural pelletization for fossil fuel replacement. The findings estimate a technical availability of 1.44 billion tons of crop residues suitable for pellet production, translating to a 4.5% potential displacement of global fossil fuel energy use, equating to 22 million TJ and equivalent to 917 million tons of coal annually. The economically optimized scenario projects annual savings of $163 billion and a reduction of 1.35 billion tons of CO2 equivalent in emissions. Utilizing the custom-developed CLASP-P and RECOP models, the study further demonstrates that agricultural pellets can achieve competitive pricing against conventional fossil fuels in many markets. Despite logistical and policy challenges, agricultural pelletization emerges as a scalable, market-driven pathway to support global decarbonization goals while fostering rural economic development. These results reinforce the need for targeted investment, technological advancement, and supportive policy to unlock the full potential of agricultural pellets in the renewable energy mix.

Suggested Citation

  • Sebastian G. Nosenzo & Rafael Kelman, 2025. "From fields to fuel: analyzing the global economic and emissions potential of agricultural pellets, informed by a case study," Papers 2508.12457, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2508.12457
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Lili Yan Ing, 2025. "ASEAN Digital Community 2045 Country Perspectives," Books, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA), number 2025-RPR-14 edited by Lili Yan Ing, March.
    2. Ahmad Daud Marsam Dollah & Mohd Ab Malek Md Shah & Rozaiha Ab Majid & Siti Aisyah Basri, 2025. "Whistleblowers in ASEAN Countries: A Whither," Information Management and Business Review, AMH International, vol. 17(1), pages 408-415.
    3. Jiang, Lu & Xue, Bing & Ma, Zhixiao & Yu, Lu & Huang, Beijia & Chen, Xingpeng, 2020. "A life-cycle based co-benefits analysis of biomass pellet production in China," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 445-452.
    4. Nicoleta Ungureanu & Valentin Vlăduț & Sorin-Ștefan Biriș, 2022. "Sustainable Valorization of Waste and By-Products from Sugarcane Processing," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(17), pages 1-27, September.
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