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A General Class of Model-Free Dense Precision Matrix Estimators

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  • Mehmet Caner Agostino Capponi Mihailo Stojnic

Abstract

We introduce prototype consistent model-free, dense precision matrix estimators that have broad application in economics. Using quadratic form concentration inequalities and novel algebraic characterizations of confounding dimension reductions, we are able to: (i) obtain non-asymptotic bounds for precision matrix estimation errors and also (ii) consistency in high dimensions; (iii) uncover the existence of an intrinsic signal-to-noise -- underlying dimensions tradeoff; and (iv) avoid exact population sparsity assumptions. In addition to its desirable theoretical properties, a thorough empirical study of the S&P 500 index shows that a tuning parameter-free special case of our general estimator exhibits a doubly ascending Sharpe Ratio pattern, thereby establishing a link with the famous double descent phenomenon dominantly present in recent statistical and machine learning literature.

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  • Mehmet Caner Agostino Capponi Mihailo Stojnic, 2025. "A General Class of Model-Free Dense Precision Matrix Estimators," Papers 2507.04663, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2507.04663
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Susan Athey & Mohsen Bayati & Nikolay Doudchenko & Guido Imbens & Khashayar Khosravi, 2021. "Matrix Completion Methods for Causal Panel Data Models," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 116(536), pages 1716-1730, October.
    2. Ledoit, Oliver & Wolf, Michael, 2008. "Robust performance hypothesis testing with the Sharpe ratio," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(5), pages 850-859, December.
    3. Cai, Tony & Liu, Weidong, 2011. "Adaptive Thresholding for Sparse Covariance Matrix Estimation," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 106(494), pages 672-684.
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