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Filtering in a hazard rate change-point model with financial and life-insurance applications

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  • Matteo Buttarazzi
  • Claudia Ceci

Abstract

This paper develops a continuous-time filtering framework for estimating a hazard rate subject to an unobservable change-point. This framework arises naturally in both financial and insurance applications, where the default intensity of a firm or the mortality rate of an individual may experience a sudden jump at an unobservable time, representing, for instance, a shift in the firm's risk profile or a deterioration in an individual's health status. By employing a progressive enlargement of filtration, we integrate noisy observations of the hazard rate with default-related information. We characterise the filter, i.e. the conditional probability of the change-point given the information flow, as the unique strong solution to a stochastic differential equation driven by the innovation process enriched with the discontinuous component. A sensitivity analysis and a comparison of the filter's behaviour under various information structures are provided. Our framework further allows for the derivation of an explicit formula for the survival probability conditional on partial information. This result applies to the pricing of credit-sensitive financial instruments such as defaultable bonds, credit default swaps, and life insurance contracts. Finally, a numerical analysis illustrates how partial information leads to delayed adjustments in the estimation of the hazard rate and consequently to mispricing of credit-sensitive instruments when compared to a full-information setting.

Suggested Citation

  • Matteo Buttarazzi & Claudia Ceci, 2025. "Filtering in a hazard rate change-point model with financial and life-insurance applications," Papers 2505.13185, arXiv.org, revised May 2025.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2505.13185
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Rüdiger Frey & Thorsten Schmidt, 2012. "Pricing and hedging of credit derivatives via the innovations approach to nonlinear filtering," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 16(1), pages 105-133, January.
    2. Robert A. Jarrow & Stuart M. Turnbull, 2008. "Pricing Derivatives on Financial Securities Subject to Credit Risk," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Financial Derivatives Pricing Selected Works of Robert Jarrow, chapter 17, pages 377-409, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    3. Johnson, Herb & Stulz, Rene, 1987. "The Pricing of Options with Default Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(2), pages 267-280, June.
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