IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/2505.02678.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Why is the volatility of single stocks so much rougher than that of the S&P500?

Author

Listed:
  • Othmane Zarhali
  • Cecilia Aubrun
  • Emmanuel Bacry
  • Jean-Philippe Bouchaud
  • Jean-Franc{c}ois Muzy

Abstract

The Nested factor model was introduced by Chicheportiche et al. to represent non-linear correlations between stocks. Stock returns are explained by a standard factor model, but the (log)-volatilities of factors and residuals are themselves decomposed into factor modes, with a common dominant volatility mode affecting both market and sector factors but also residuals. Here, we consider the case of a single factor where the only dominant log-volatility mode is rough, with a Hurst exponent $H \simeq 0.11$ and the log-volatility residuals are ''super-rough'', with $H \simeq 0$. We demonstrate that such a construction naturally accounts for the somewhat surprising stylized fact reported by Wu et al. , where it has been observed that the Hurst exponents of stock indexes are large compared to those of individual stocks. We propose a statistical procedure to estimate the Hurst factor exponent from the stock returns dynamics together with theoretical guarantees of its consistency. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach through numerical experiments and apply it to daily stock data from the S&P500 index. The estimated roughness exponents for both the factor and idiosyncratic components validate the assumptions underlying our model.

Suggested Citation

  • Othmane Zarhali & Cecilia Aubrun & Emmanuel Bacry & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud & Jean-Franc{c}ois Muzy, 2025. "Why is the volatility of single stocks so much rougher than that of the S&P500?," Papers 2505.02678, arXiv.org, revised May 2025.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2505.02678
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/2505.02678
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rémy Chicheportiche & J-P Bouchaud, 2015. "A nested factor model for non-linear dependencies in stock returns," Post-Print hal-01339978, HAL.
    2. Bacry, E. & Delour, J. & Muzy, J.F., 2001. "Modelling financial time series using multifractal random walks," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 299(1), pages 84-92.
    3. Forde, Martin & Fukasawa, Masaaki & Gerhold, Stefan & Smith, Benjamin, 2022. "The Riemann–Liouville field and its GMC as H→0, and skew flattening for the rough Bergomi model," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 181(C).
    4. Mikkel Bennedsen & Asger Lunde & Mikko S Pakkanen, 2022. "Decoupling the Short- and Long-Term Behavior of Stochastic Volatility [Multifactor Approximation of Rough Volatility Models]," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 20(5), pages 961-1006.
    5. Fabienne Comte & Eric Renault, 1998. "Long memory in continuous‐time stochastic volatility models," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 8(4), pages 291-323, October.
    6. Garman, Mark B & Klass, Michael J, 1980. "On the Estimation of Security Price Volatilities from Historical Data," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 53(1), pages 67-78, January.
    7. Fabrizio Lillo & Rosario N. Mantegna, 2000. "Symmetry alteration of ensemble return distribution in crash and rally days of financial markets," Papers cond-mat/0002438, arXiv.org.
    8. Jean-François Muzy & Peng Wu & Emmanuel Bacry, 2022. "From Rough to Multifractal volatility: the log S-fBM model," Post-Print hal-03861566, HAL.
    9. Wu, Peng & Muzy, Jean-François & Bacry, Emmanuel, 2022. "From rough to multifractal volatility: The log S-fBM model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 604(C).
    10. repec:dau:papers:123456789/10898 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Pierre Cizeau & Marc Potters & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, 2000. "Correlation structure of extreme stock returns," Science & Finance (CFM) working paper archive 0006034, Science & Finance, Capital Fund Management.
    12. R. Chicheportiche & J.-P. Bouchaud, 2015. "A nested factor model for non-linear dependencies in stock returns," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(11), pages 1789-1804, November.
    13. Benoit Mandelbrot & Adlai Fisher & Laurent Calvet, 1997. "A Multifractal Model of Asset Returns," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1164, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    14. Giulia Livieri & Saad Mouti & Andrea Pallavicini & Mathieu Rosenbaum, 2018. "Rough volatility: Evidence from option prices," IISE Transactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(9), pages 767-776, September.
    15. Rémy Chicheportiche & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, 2012. "The Joint Distribution Of Stock Returns Is Not Elliptical," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 15(03), pages 1-23.
    16. Peng Wu & Jean-Franc{c}ois Muzy & Emmanuel Bacry, 2022. "From Rough to Multifractal volatility: the log S-fBM model," Papers 2201.09516, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2022.
    17. Masaaki Fukasawa, 2021. "Volatility has to be rough," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 1-8, January.
    18. Christian Bayer & Peter Friz & Jim Gatheral, 2016. "Pricing under rough volatility," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(6), pages 887-904, June.
    19. Rémy Chicheportiche & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, 2012. "The joint distribution of stock returns is not elliptical," Post-Print hal-00703720, HAL.
    20. R'emy Chicheportiche & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, 2010. "The joint distribution of stock returns is not elliptical," Papers 1009.1100, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2012.
    21. Jerome Garnier-Brun & Michael Benzaquen & Stefano Ciliberti & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, 2021. "A new spin on optimal portfolios and ecological equilibria," Post-Print hal-03378915, HAL.
    22. P. Cizeau & M. Potters & J-P. Bouchaud, 2001. "Correlation structure of extreme stock returns," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(2), pages 217-222.
    23. Jerome Garnier-Brun & Michael Benzaquen & Stefano Ciliberti & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, 2021. "A new spin on optimal portfolios and ecological equilibria," Papers 2104.00668, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2021.
    24. Eyal Neuman & Mathieu Rosenbaum, 2017. "Fractional Brownian motion with zero Hurst parameter: a rough volatility viewpoint," Papers 1711.00427, arXiv.org, revised May 2018.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wu, Peng & Muzy, Jean-François & Bacry, Emmanuel, 2022. "From rough to multifractal volatility: The log S-fBM model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 604(C).
    2. Brandi, Giuseppe & Di Matteo, T., 2022. "Multiscaling and rough volatility: An empirical investigation," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    3. R'emy Chicheportiche & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, 2013. "A nested factor model for non-linear dependences in stock returns," Papers 1309.3102, arXiv.org.
    4. Eduardo Abi Jaber, 2022. "The characteristic function of Gaussian stochastic volatility models: an analytic expression," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 26(4), pages 733-769, October.
    5. Takaishi, Tetsuya, 2025. "Multifractality and sample size influence on Bitcoin volatility patterns," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    6. Huy N. Chau & Duy Nguyen & Thai Nguyen, 2024. "On short-time behavior of implied volatility in a market model with indexes," Papers 2402.16509, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2025.
    7. Tetsuya Takaishi, 2019. "Rough volatility of Bitcoin," Papers 1904.12346, arXiv.org.
    8. Saad Mouti, 2023. "Rough volatility: evidence from range volatility estimators," Papers 2312.01426, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2024.
    9. Angelini, Daniele & Bianchi, Sergio, 2023. "Nonlinear biases in the roughness of a Fractional Stochastic Regularity Model," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).
    10. Giuseppe Brandi & T. Di Matteo, 2022. "Multiscaling and rough volatility: an empirical investigation," Papers 2201.10466, arXiv.org.
    11. Li, Yicun & Teng, Yuanyang, 2023. "Statistical inference in discretely observed fractional Ornstein–Uhlenbeck processes," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    12. Paul Hager & Eyal Neuman, 2020. "The Multiplicative Chaos of $H=0$ Fractional Brownian Fields," Papers 2008.01385, arXiv.org.
    13. Carsten Chong & Marc Hoffmann & Yanghui Liu & Mathieu Rosenbaum & Gr'egoire Szymanski, 2022. "Statistical inference for rough volatility: Central limit theorems," Papers 2210.01216, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2024.
    14. Rudy Morel & St'ephane Mallat & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, 2023. "Path Shadowing Monte-Carlo," Papers 2308.01486, arXiv.org.
    15. Carsten Chong & Marc Hoffmann & Yanghui Liu & Mathieu Rosenbaum & Gr'egoire Szymanski, 2022. "Statistical inference for rough volatility: Minimax Theory," Papers 2210.01214, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2024.
    16. Takaishi, Tetsuya, 2020. "Rough volatility of Bitcoin," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 32(C).
    17. Jonathan Raimana Chan & Thomas Huckle & Antoine Jacquier & Aitor Muguruza, 2021. "Portfolio optimisation with options," Papers 2111.12658, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2024.
    18. Blanka Horvath & Antoine Jacquier & Aitor Muguruza & Andreas Søjmark, 2024. "Functional central limit theorems for rough volatility," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 28(3), pages 615-661, July.
    19. Siu Hin Tang & Mathieu Rosenbaum & Chao Zhou, 2023. "Forecasting Volatility with Machine Learning and Rough Volatility: Example from the Crypto-Winter," Papers 2311.04727, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2024.
    20. Mathieu Rosenbaum & Jianfei Zhang, 2022. "On the universality of the volatility formation process: when machine learning and rough volatility agree," Papers 2206.14114, arXiv.org.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2505.02678. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.