IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/2502.06080.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Compounding Effect of Harsh Climate and Societal Disruptions on Food Prices in Early Modern Europe

Author

Listed:
  • Emile Esmaili
  • Michael J. Puma
  • Francis Ludlow
  • Eva Jobbova

Abstract

The complex interplay between famine, warfare, and climate constitutes a multifaceted and context-dependent relationship that has profoundly influenced human history, particularly in early modern Europe. This study advances the literature on climate-economy interactions by leveraging multi-scale statistical techniques to quantify the compounded effects of climate variability and socio-political factors on food prices, offering novel model-based insights into the historical dynamics of climate and economic systems. Using Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA), we investigate the influence of temperature fluctuations and drought severity on food prices across 14 European cities from 1565 to 1785. Our findings confirm a persistent negative relationship between temperature and food prices over the long term, while the relationship between drought severity and price dynamics appears positive yet inconsistent. Extending our analysis to higher-frequency patterns, we demonstrate that cold anomalies are strongly associated with food price that caused large-scale famines of the 1590s and 1690s. Likewise, we show that the severe and consecutive droughts of 1634 to 1636, coinciding with the Thirty Years' War, significantly amplified food price volatility, illustrating how climatic shocks can compound socio-economic and political crises. Furthermore, we identify years characterized by the simultaneous occurrence of extreme cold and drought as periods of heightened price instability, underscoring the compounded impact of concurrent climatic stressors on food prices during the early modern period.

Suggested Citation

  • Emile Esmaili & Michael J. Puma & Francis Ludlow & Eva Jobbova, 2025. "Compounding Effect of Harsh Climate and Societal Disruptions on Food Prices in Early Modern Europe," Papers 2502.06080, arXiv.org.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2502.06080
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/2502.06080
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fredrik Charpentier Ljungqvist & Peter Thejll & Bo Christiansen & Andrea Seim & Claudia Hartl & Jan Esper, 2022. "The significance of climate variability on early modern European grain prices," Cliometrica, Journal of Historical Economics and Econometric History, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC), vol. 16(1), pages 29-77, January.
    2. Allen, Robert C., 2001. "The Great Divergence in European Wages and Prices from the Middle Ages to the First World War," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 411-447, October.
    3. Fredrik Charpentier Ljungqvist & Peter Thejll & Bo Christiansen & Andrea Seim & Claudia Hartl & Jan Esper, 2022. "The significance of climate variability on early modern European grain prices," Cliometrica, Springer;Cliometric Society (Association Francaise de Cliométrie), vol. 16(1), pages 29-77, January.
    4. Fredrik Charpentier Ljungqvist & Andrea Seim & Heli Huhtamaa, 2021. "Climate and society in European history," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 12(2), March.
    5. Guido Alfani & Cormac Ó Gráda, 2018. "The timing and causes of famines in Europe," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 1(6), pages 283-288, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ljungqvist, Fredrik Charpentier & Seim, Andrea, 2024. "Reassessing grain price variability in early modern Europe (c. 1500–1800)," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    2. Cao, Yan & Cheng, Sheng & Li, Xinran, 2024. "Co-movements between heterogeneous crude oil and food markets: Does temperature change really matter?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(PB).
    3. José Luis Martínez-González, 2025. "Assessing agricultural adaptation to changing climatic conditions during the English agricultural revolution (1645–1740)," Cliometrica, Springer;Cliometric Society (Association Francaise de Cliométrie), vol. 19(1), pages 163-193, January.
    4. Sullivan, Dylan & Hickel, Jason, 2023. "Capitalism and extreme poverty: a global analysis of real wages, human height, and mortality since the long 16th century," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 117731, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    5. Johan Fourie & Leigh Gardner, 2014. "The Internationalization of Economic History: A Puzzle," Economic History of Developing Regions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(1), pages 1-14, June.
    6. Thomas Baudin & Robert Stelter, 2022. "The rural exodus and the rise of Europe," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 27(3), pages 365-414, September.
    7. Patrick Legros & Andrew F. Newman & Eugenio Proto, 2014. "Smithian Growth through Creative Organization," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 96(5), pages 796-811, December.
    8. Vania Licio, 2023. "The Italian coal shortage: the price of import and distribution, 1861–1911," Cliometrica, Springer;Cliometric Society (Association Francaise de Cliométrie), vol. 17(3), pages 501-532, September.
    9. Rafael Gonzalez-Val & David Cuberes, 2013. "History and Urban Primacy: The Effect of the Spanish Reconquista on Muslim Cities," ERSA conference papers ersa13p60, European Regional Science Association.
    10. James Foreman-Peck & Peng Zhou, 2021. "Fertility versus productivity: a model of growth with evolutionary equilibria," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 34(3), pages 1073-1104, July.
    11. Johnson, Noel D. & Koyama, Mark, 2017. "Jewish communities and city growth in preindustrial Europe," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 339-354.
    12. Claridge, Jordan & Delabastita, Vincent & Gibbs, Spike, 2024. "(In-kind) Wages and labour relations in the Middle Ages: It’s not (all) about the money," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    13. Natsuka Tokumaru, 2024. "Reality-oriented critical learning using the CORE in introductory economics courses: cognitive engagement and economic literacy," Evolutionary and Institutional Economics Review, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 97-113, April.
    14. Minns, Chris & Wallis, Patrick, 2013. "The price of human capital in a pre-industrial economy: Premiums and apprenticeship contracts in 18th century England," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 335-350.
    15. Giovanni Dosi & Andrea Roventini & Emmanuele Russo, 2020. "Public Policies And The Art Of Catching Up," Working Papers hal-03242369, HAL.
    16. Claudia Rei, 2013. "Incentives in merchant empires: Portuguese and Dutch compensation schemes," Cliometrica, Journal of Historical Economics and Econometric History, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC), vol. 7(1), pages 1-13, January.
    17. Cohen, Joseph N & Linton, April, 2010. "The historical relationship between inflation and political rebellion, and what it might teach us about neoliberalism," MPRA Paper 22522, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Daron Acemoglu & James A. Robinson, 2015. "The Rise and Decline of General Laws of Capitalism," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 29(1), pages 3-28, Winter.
    19. Boško Mijatović & Branko Milanović, 2021. "The real urban wage in an agricultural economy without landless farmers: Serbia, 1862–1910," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 74(2), pages 424-448, May.
    20. Prados de la Escosura, Leandro & Cha, Myung Soo, "undated". "Living Standards, Inequality, and Human Development since 1870 : a Review of Evidence," IFCS - Working Papers in Economic History.WH 28438, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Instituto Figuerola.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2502.06080. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.