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Keynesian chaos revisited: odd period cycles and ergodic properties

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  • Tomohiro Uchiyama

Abstract

In this paper, we study two standard (Keynesian) dynamic macroeconomic models (one is piecewise linear and the other is nonlinear). Our purpose is twofold: (1)~For each model, we give a complete characterisation for the existence of a topological chaos (of the GDP levels), (2)~Even if a chaos exists, using ergodic theory, we show that it is possible to predict the future GDP levels "on average". This paper gives a new application of a celebrated result in ergodic theory by A. Avila (2014 fields medalist). We believe that our method/strategy in this paper is generic enough to be used to analyse many other (seemingly untractable) chaotic economic models.

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  • Tomohiro Uchiyama, 2024. "Keynesian chaos revisited: odd period cycles and ergodic properties," Papers 2407.12837, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2407.12837
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mitra, Tapan, 2001. "A Sufficient Condition for Topological Chaos with an Application to a Model of Endogenous Growth," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 96(1-2), pages 133-152, January.
    2. Deng, Liuchun & Khan, M. Ali & Mitra, Tapan, 2022. "Continuous unimodal maps in economic dynamics: On easily verifiable conditions for topological chaos," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 201(C).
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