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Probabilistic Forecasting of Real-Time Electricity Market Signals via Interpretable Generative AI

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  • Xinyi Wang
  • Qing Zhao
  • Lang Tong

Abstract

This paper introduces a generative AI approach to probabilistic forecasting of real-time electricity market signals, including locational marginal prices, interregional price spreads, and demand-supply imbalances. We present WIAE-GPF, a Weak Innovation AutoEncoder-based Generative Probabilistic Forecasting architecture that generates future samples of multivariate time series. Unlike traditional black-box models, WIAE-GPF offers interpretability through the Wiener-Kallianpur innovation representation for nonparametric time series, making it a nonparametric generalization of the Wiener/Kalman filter-based forecasting. A novel learning algorithm with structural convergence guarantees is proposed, ensuring that, under ideal training conditions, the generated forecast samples match the ground truth conditional probability distribution. Extensive tests using publicly available data from U.S. independent system operators under various point and probabilistic forecasting metrics demonstrate that WIAE-GPF consistently outperforms classical methods and cutting-edge machine learning techniques.

Suggested Citation

  • Xinyi Wang & Qing Zhao & Lang Tong, 2024. "Probabilistic Forecasting of Real-Time Electricity Market Signals via Interpretable Generative AI," Papers 2403.05743, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2024.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2403.05743
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    4. Wolfgang Härdle & Helmut Lütkepohl & Rong Chen, 1997. "A Review of Nonparametric Time Series Analysis," International Statistical Review, International Statistical Institute, vol. 65(1), pages 49-72, April.
    5. Gaillard, Pierre & Goude, Yannig & Nedellec, Raphaël, 2016. "Additive models and robust aggregation for GEFCom2014 probabilistic electric load and electricity price forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 1038-1050.
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