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Ruin probability for the quota share model with~phase-type distributed claims

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  • Krzysztof Burnecki
  • Zbigniew Palmowski
  • Marek Teuerle
  • Aleksandra Wilkowska

Abstract

In this paper, we generalise the results presented in the literature for the ruin probability for the insurer--reinsurer model under a pro-rata reinsurance contract. We consider claim amounts that are described by a phase-type distribution that includes exponential, mixture of exponential, Erlang, and mixture of Erlang distributions. We derive the ruin probability formulas with the use of change-of-measure technique and present important special cases. We illustrate the usefulness of the introduced model by fitting it to the real-world loss data. With the use of statistical tests and graphical tools, we show that the mixture of Erlangs is well-fitted to the data and is superior to other considered distributions. This justifies the fact that the presented results can be useful in the context of risk assessment of co-operating insurance companies.

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  • Krzysztof Burnecki & Zbigniew Palmowski & Marek Teuerle & Aleksandra Wilkowska, 2023. "Ruin probability for the quota share model with~phase-type distributed claims," Papers 2303.07705, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2303.07705
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Dickson, David C. M. & Hipp, Christian, 1998. "Ruin probabilities for Erlang(2) risk processes," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 251-262, July.
    2. Gordon Willmot & Jae-Kyung Woo, 2007. "On the Class of Erlang Mixtures with Risk Theoretic Applications," North American Actuarial Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(2), pages 99-115.
    3. Avram, Florin & Palmowski, Zbigniew & Pistorius, Martijn, 2008. "A two-dimensional ruin problem on the positive quadrant," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 227-234, February.
    4. Asmussen, Søren & Avram, Florin & Pistorius, Martijn R., 2004. "Russian and American put options under exponential phase-type Lévy models," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 109(1), pages 79-111, January.
    5. Krzysztof Burnecki & Marek A. Teuerle & Aleksandra Wilkowska, 2021. "Ruin Probability for the Insurer–Reinsurer Model for Exponential Claims: A Probabilistic Approach," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(5), pages 1-10, May.
    6. Pavel Cizek & Wolfgang Karl Härdle & Rafal Weron, 2011. "Statistical Tools for Finance and Insurance (2nd edition)," HSC Books, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology, number hsbook1101.
    7. Dickson, David C.M. & Willmot, Gordon E., 2005. "The Density of the Time to Ruin in the Classical Poisson Risk Model," ASTIN Bulletin, Cambridge University Press, vol. 35(1), pages 45-60, May.
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