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The Falsification Adaptive Set in Linear Models with Instrumental Variables that Violate the Exclusion or Conditional Exogeneity Restriction

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  • Nicolas Apfel
  • Frank Windmeijer

Abstract

Masten and Poirier (2021) introduced the falsification adaptive set (FAS) in linear models with a single endogenous variable estimated with multiple correlated instrumental variables (IVs). The FAS reflects the model uncertainty that arises from falsification of the baseline model. We show that it applies to cases where a conditional exogeneity assumption holds and invalid instruments violate the exclusion assumption only. We propose a generalized FAS that reflects the model uncertainty when some instruments violate the exclusion assumption and/or some instruments violate the conditional exogeneity assumption. Under the assumption that invalid instruments are not themselves endogenous explanatory variables, if there is at least one relevant instrument that satisfies both the exclusion and conditional exogeneity assumptions then this generalized FAS is guaranteed to contain the parameter of interest.

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  • Nicolas Apfel & Frank Windmeijer, 2022. "The Falsification Adaptive Set in Linear Models with Instrumental Variables that Violate the Exclusion or Conditional Exogeneity Restriction," Papers 2212.04814, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2024.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2212.04814
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Frank Windmeijer & Xiaoran Liang & Fernando P. Hartwig & Jack Bowden, 2021. "The confidence interval method for selecting valid instrumental variables," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 83(4), pages 752-776, September.
    2. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-1054, July.
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    4. Zijian Guo & Hyunseung Kang & T. Tony Cai & Dylan S. Small, 2018. "Confidence intervals for causal effects with invalid instruments by using two‐stage hard thresholding with voting," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 80(4), pages 793-815, September.
    5. Frank Windmeijer & Helmut Farbmacher & Neil Davies & George Davey Smith, 2019. "On the Use of the Lasso for Instrumental Variables Estimation with Some Invalid Instruments," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 114(527), pages 1339-1350, July.
    6. Donald W. K. Andrews, 1999. "Consistent Moment Selection Procedures for Generalized Method of Moments Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(3), pages 543-564, May.
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    8. Hyunseung Kang & Anru Zhang & T. Tony Cai & Dylan S. Small, 2016. "Instrumental Variables Estimation With Some Invalid Instruments and its Application to Mendelian Randomization," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 111(513), pages 132-144, March.
    9. Matthew A. Masten & Alexandre Poirier, 2021. "Salvaging Falsified Instrumental Variable Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(3), pages 1449-1469, May.
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