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Can the Replication Rate Tell Us About Publication Bias?

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  • Patrick Vu

Abstract

A leading explanation for widespread replication failures is publication bias. I show in a simple model of selective publication that, contrary to common perceptions, the replication rate is unaffected by the suppression of insignificant results in the publication process. I show further that the expected replication rate falls below intended power owing to issues with common power calculations. I empirically calibrate a model of selective publication and find that power issues alone can explain the entirety of the gap between the replication rate and intended power in experimental economics. In psychology, these issues explain two-thirds of the gap.

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  • Patrick Vu, 2022. "Can the Replication Rate Tell Us About Publication Bias?," Papers 2206.15023, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2022.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2206.15023
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Alberto Abadie, 2020. "Statistical Nonsignificance in Empirical Economics," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 2(2), pages 193-208, June.
    2. Abel Brodeur & Mathias Lé & Marc Sangnier & Yanos Zylberberg, 2016. "Star Wars: The Empirics Strike Back," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 8(1), pages 1-32, January.
    3. Garret Christensen & Edward Miguel, 2018. "Transparency, Reproducibility, and the Credibility of Economics Research," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 56(3), pages 920-980, September.
    4. Isaiah Andrews & Maximilian Kasy, 2019. "Identification of and Correction for Publication Bias," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(8), pages 2766-2794, August.
    5. Anna, Petrenko, 2016. "Мaркування готової продукції як складова частина інформаційного забезпечення маркетингової діяльності підприємств овочепродуктового підкомплексу," Agricultural and Resource Economics: International Scientific E-Journal, Agricultural and Resource Economics: International Scientific E-Journal, vol. 2(1), March.
    6. Valentin Amrhein & David Trafimow & Sander Greenland, 2019. "Inferential Statistics as Descriptive Statistics: There Is No Replication Crisis if We Don’t Expect Replication," The American Statistician, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 73(S1), pages 262-270, March.
    7. Maximilian Kasy, 2021. "Of Forking Paths and Tied Hands: Selective Publication of Findings, and What Economists Should Do about It," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 35(3), pages 175-192, Summer.
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    Cited by:

    1. Guillaume Coqueret, 2023. "Forking paths in financial economics," Papers 2401.08606, arXiv.org.

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