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A mixture autoregressive model based on Gaussian and Student's $t$-distributions

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  • Savi Virolainen

Abstract

We introduce a new mixture autoregressive model which combines Gaussian and Student's $t$ mixture components. The model has very attractive properties analogous to the Gaussian and Student's $t$ mixture autoregressive models, but it is more flexible as it enables to model series which consist of both conditionally homoscedastic Gaussian regimes and conditionally heteroscedastic Student's $t$ regimes. The usefulness of our model is demonstrated in an empirical application to the monthly U.S. interest rate spread between the 3-month Treasury bill rate and the effective federal funds rate.

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  • Savi Virolainen, 2020. "A mixture autoregressive model based on Gaussian and Student's $t$-distributions," Papers 2003.05221, arXiv.org, revised May 2020.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2003.05221
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hajo Holzmann & Axel Munk & Tilmann Gneiting, 2006. "Identifiability of Finite Mixtures of Elliptical Distributions," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 33(4), pages 753-763, December.
    2. N. K. Kishor & H. A. Marfatia, 2013. "Does federal funds futures rate contain information about the treasury bill rate?," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(16), pages 1311-1324, August.
    3. Leena Kalliovirta & Mika Meitz & Pentti Saikkonen, 2015. "A Gaussian Mixture Autoregressive Model for Univariate Time Series," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(2), pages 247-266, March.
    4. Peng Ding, 2016. "On the Conditional Distribution of the Multivariate Distribution," The American Statistician, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 70(3), pages 293-295, July.
    5. Sarno, Lucio & Thornton, Daniel L., 2003. "The dynamic relationship between the federal funds rate and the Treasury bill rate: An empirical investigation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 1079-1110, June.
    6. Viktoria Baklanova & Adam Copeland & Rebecca McCaughrin, 2015. "Reference Guide to U.S. Repo and Securities Lending Markets," Working Papers 15-17, Office of Financial Research, US Department of the Treasury.
    7. Simon, David P, 1990. "Expectations and the Treasury Bill-Federal Funds Rate Spread over Recent Monetary Policy Regimes," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(2), pages 467-477, June.
    8. Kalliovirta, Leena & Meitz, Mika & Saikkonen, Pentti, 2016. "Gaussian mixture vector autoregression," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 192(2), pages 485-498.
    9. Meitz, Mika & Saikkonen, Pentti, 2021. "Testing for observation-dependent regime switching in mixture autoregressive models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 222(1), pages 601-624.
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    1. Savi Virolainen, 2020. "Structural Gaussian mixture vector autoregressive model with application to the asymmetric effects of monetary policy shocks," Papers 2007.04713, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2022.

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