IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/1802.07405.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Extracting the multi-timescale activity patterns of online financial markets

Author

Listed:
  • Teruyoshi Kobayashi
  • Anna Sapienza
  • Emilio Ferrara

Abstract

Online financial markets can be represented as complex systems where trading dynamics can be captured and characterized at different resolutions and time scales. In this work, we develop a methodology based on non-negative tensor factorization (NTF) aimed at extracting and revealing the multi-timescale trading dynamics governing online financial systems. We demonstrate the advantage of our strategy first using synthetic data, and then on real-world data capturing all interbank transactions (over a million) occurred in an Italian online financial market (e-MID) between 2001 and 2015. Our results demonstrate how NTF can uncover hidden activity patterns that characterize groups of banks exhibiting different trading strategies (normal vs. early vs. flash trading, etc.). We further illustrate how our methodology can reveal "crisis modalities" in trading triggered by endogenous and exogenous system shocks: as an example, we reveal and characterize trading anomalies in the midst of the 2008 financial crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Teruyoshi Kobayashi & Anna Sapienza & Emilio Ferrara, 2018. "Extracting the multi-timescale activity patterns of online financial markets," Papers 1802.07405, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2018.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1802.07405
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/1802.07405
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Charles D. Brummitt & Teruyoshi Kobayashi, 2015. "Cascades in multiplex financial networks with debts of different seniority," Papers 1501.05400, arXiv.org, revised May 2015.
    2. Fabio Caccioli & Paolo Barucca & Teruyoshi Kobayashi, 2018. "Network models of financial systemic risk: a review," Journal of Computational Social Science, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 81-114, January.
    3. Prasanna Gai & Sujit Kapadia, 2010. "Contagion in financial networks," Bank of England working papers 383, Bank of England.
    4. Robert M. May & Simon A. Levin & George Sugihara, 2008. "Ecology for bankers," Nature, Nature, vol. 451(7181), pages 893-894, February.
    5. Teruyoshi Kobayashi & Taro Takaguchi, 2017. "Significant ties: Identifying relationship lending in temporal interbank networks," Discussion Papers 1717, Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University.
    6. de Masi, G. & Iori, G. & Caldarelli, G., 2006. "A fitness model for the Italian interbank money market," Working Papers 06/08, Department of Economics, City St George's, University of London.
    7. Franklin Allen & Elena Carletti, 2010. "An Overview of the Crisis: Causes, Consequences, and Solutions," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 10(1), pages 1-26, March.
    8. R. Baupain & A. Durre, 2007. "The interday and intraday patterns of the overnight market : evidence from an electronic platform," Post-Print hal-00300195, HAL.
    9. Franklin Allen & Elena Carletti, 2010. "An Overview of the Crisis: Causes, Consequences, and Solutions-super-," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 10(s1), pages 1-26.
    10. Kobayashi, Teruyoshi & Takaguchi, Taro, 2018. "Identifying relationship lending in the interbank market: A network approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 20-36.
    11. Barucca, Paolo & Lillo, Fabrizio, 2016. "Disentangling bipartite and core-periphery structure in financial networks," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 244-253.
    12. Teruyoshi Kobayashi & Kohei Hasui, 2013. "Efficient immunization strategies to prevent financial contagion," Papers 1308.0652, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2013.
    13. Markus K. Brunnermeier, 2009. "Deciphering the Liquidity and Credit Crunch 2007-2008," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 23(1), pages 77-100, Winter.
    14. Iori, Giulia & De Masi, Giulia & Precup, Ovidiu Vasile & Gabbi, Giampaolo & Caldarelli, Guido, 2008. "A network analysis of the Italian overnight money market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 259-278, January.
    15. Andrew G. Haldane & Robert M. May, 2011. "Systemic risk in banking ecosystems," Nature, Nature, vol. 469(7330), pages 351-355, January.
    16. Teruyoshi Kobayashi & Taro Takaguchi, 2017. "Social dynamics of financial networks," Papers 1703.10832, arXiv.org, revised May 2017.
    17. Gai, Prasanna & Haldane, Andrew & Kapadia, Sujit, 2011. "Complexity, concentration and contagion," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(5), pages 453-470.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Anastasios Demertzidis, 2019. "Interbank transactions on the intraday frequency: -Different market states and the effects of the financial crisis-," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201932, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    2. Akira Matsui & Teruyoshi Kobayashi & Daisuke Moriwaki & Emilio Ferrara, 2023. "Detecting multi-timescale consumption patterns from receipt data: a non-negative tensor factorization approach," Journal of Computational Social Science, Springer, vol. 6(2), pages 1179-1192, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kobayashi, Teruyoshi & Takaguchi, Taro, 2018. "Identifying relationship lending in the interbank market: A network approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 20-36.
    2. Sadamori Kojaku & Giulio Cimini & Guido Caldarelli & Naoki Masuda, 2018. "Structural changes in the interbank market across the financial crisis from multiple core-periphery analysis," Papers 1802.05139, arXiv.org.
    3. Fabio Caccioli & Paolo Barucca & Teruyoshi Kobayashi, 2018. "Network models of financial systemic risk: a review," Journal of Computational Social Science, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 81-114, January.
    4. Tiziano Squartini & Guido Caldarelli & Giulio Cimini & Andrea Gabrielli & Diego Garlaschelli, 2018. "Reconstruction methods for networks: the case of economic and financial systems," Papers 1806.06941, arXiv.org.
    5. Marco Bardoscia & Paolo Barucca & Stefano Battiston & Fabio Caccioli & Giulio Cimini & Diego Garlaschelli & Fabio Saracco & Tiziano Squartini & Guido Caldarelli, 2021. "The Physics of Financial Networks," Papers 2103.05623, arXiv.org.
    6. Giulia Poce & Giulio Cimini & Andrea Gabrielli & Andrea Zaccaria & Giuditta Baldacci & Marco Polito & Mariangela Rizzo & Silvia Sabatini, 2016. "What do central counterparties default funds really cover? A network-based stress test answer," Papers 1611.03782, arXiv.org.
    7. Fabrizio Lillo & Giorgio Rizzini, 2024. "Modelling shock propagation and resilience in financial temporal networks," Papers 2407.09340, arXiv.org.
    8. Giulio Cimini & Matteo Serri, 2016. "Entangling Credit and Funding Shocks in Interbank Markets," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(8), pages 1-15, August.
    9. He, Fang & Chen, Xi, 2016. "Credit networks and systemic risk of Chinese local financing platforms: Too central or too big to fail?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 461(C), pages 158-170.
    10. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2013_019 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Andre R. Neveu, 2018. "A survey of network-based analysis and systemic risk measurement," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 13(2), pages 241-281, July.
    12. Toivanen, Mervi, 2013. "Contagion in the interbank network : An epidemiological approach," Research Discussion Papers 19/2013, Bank of Finland.
    13. Brandi, Giuseppe & Di Clemente, Riccardo & Cimini, Giulio, 2018. "Epidemics of liquidity shortages in interbank markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 507(C), pages 255-267.
    14. Tabak, Benjamin Miranda & Silva, Thiago Christiano & Fiche, Marcelo Estrela & Braz, Tércio, 2021. "Citation likelihood analysis of the interbank financial networks literature: A machine learning and bibliometric approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 562(C).
    15. Hüser, Anne-Caroline, 2016. "Too interconnected to fail: A survey of the Interbank Networks literature," SAFE Working Paper Series 91, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE, revised 2016.
    16. Adão, Luiz F.S. & Silveira, Douglas & Ely, Regis A. & Cajueiro, Daniel O., 2022. "The impacts of interest rates on banks’ loan portfolio risk-taking," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    17. Cetina, Jill & Paddrik, Mark & Rajan, Sriram, 2018. "Stressed to the core: Counterparty concentrations and systemic losses in CDS markets," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 38-52.
    18. Sam Langfield & Kimmo Soramäki, 2016. "Interbank Exposure Networks," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 47(1), pages 3-17, January.
    19. León, C., 2015. "Financial stability from a network perspective," Other publications TiSEM bb2e4e44-e842-45c6-a946-4, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    20. Roukny, Tarik & Georg, Co-Pierre & Battiston, Stefano, 2014. "A network analysis of the evolution of the German interbank market," Discussion Papers 22/2014, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    21. Marnix Van Soom & Milan Van Den Heuvel & Jan Ryckebusch & Koen Schoors, 2019. "Loan Maturity Aggregation In Interbank Lending Networks Obscures Mesoscale Structure And Economic Functions," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 19/952, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1802.07405. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.