Measuring Model Risk
We propose to interpret distribution model risk as sensitivity of expected loss to changes in the risk factor distribution, and to measure the distribution model risk of a portfolio by the maximum expected loss over a set of plausible distributions defined in terms of some divergence from an estimated distribution. The divergence may be relative entropy, a Bregman distance, or an $f$-divergence. We give formulas for the calculation of distribution model risk and explicitly determine the worst case distribution from the set of plausible distributions. We also give formulas for the evaluation of divergence preferences describing ambiguity averse decision makers.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Fabio Maccheroni & Massimo Marinacci & Aldo Rustichini, 2006.
"Ambiguity Aversion, Robustness, and the Variational Representation of Preferences,"
Econometric Society, vol. 74(6), pages 1447-1498, November.
- Fabio Maccheroni & Massimo Marinacci & Aldo Rustichini, 2004. "Ambiguity Aversion, Robustness, and the Variational Representation of Preferences," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 12, Collegio Carlo Alberto, revised 2006.
- Thomas J. Sargent & LarsPeter Hansen, 2001. "Robust Control and Model Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 60-66, May.
- Barillas, Francisco & Hansen, Lars Peter & Sargent, Thomas J., 2009. "Doubts or variability?," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 144(6), pages 2388-2418, November.
- Kerkhof, Jeroen & Melenberg, Bertrand & Schumacher, Hans, 2010. "Model risk and capital reserves," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 267-279, January.
- Hansen, Lars Peter & Sargent, Thomas J., 2005.
"Recursive robust estimation and control without commitment,"
Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies
2005,28, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
- Hansen, Lars Peter & Sargent, Thomas J., 2007. "Recursive robust estimation and control without commitment," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 136(1), pages 1-27, September.
- L. Randall Wray & Stephanie Bell, 2004. "Introduction," Chapters, in: Credit and State Theories of Money, chapter 1 Edward Elgar.
- Golan, Amos & Judge, George G. & Miller, Douglas, 1996. "Maximum Entropy Econometrics," Staff General Research Papers 1488, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
- Marco Avellaneda & Antonio ParAS, 1996. "Managing the volatility risk of portfolios of derivative securities: the Lagrangian uncertain volatility model," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(1), pages 21-52.
- Ramon Casadesus-Masanell & Peter Klibanoff & Emre Ozdenoren, 1998. "Maximum Expected Utility over Savage Acts with a Set of Priors," Discussion Papers 1218, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
- Rama Cont, 2006. "Model uncertainty and its impact on the pricing of derivative instruments," Post-Print halshs-00002695, HAL.
- Gilboa, Itzhak & Schmeidler, David, 1989.
"Maxmin expected utility with non-unique prior,"
Journal of Mathematical Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 141-153, April.
- Philippe Artzner & Freddy Delbaen & Jean-Marc Eber & David Heath, 1999. "Coherent Measures of Risk," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(3), pages 203-228.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1301.4832. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (arXiv administrators)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.