Identifying financial crises in real time
Following the thermodynamic formulation of multifractal measure that was shown to be capable of detecting large fluctuations at an early stage, here we propose a new index which permits us to distinguish events like financial crisis in real time . We calculate the partition function from where we obtain thermodynamic quantities analogous to free energy and specific heat. The index is defined as the normalized energy variation and it can be used to study the behavior of stochastic time series, such as financial market daily data. Famous financial market crashes - Black Thursday (1929), Black Monday (1987) and Subprime crisis (2008) - are identified with clear and robust results. The method is also applied to the market fluctuations of 2011. From these results it appears as if the apparent crisis of 2011 is of a different nature from the other three. We also show that the analysis has forecasting capabilities.
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Domino, Krzysztof, 2011. "The use of the Hurst exponent to predict changes in trends on the Warsaw Stock Exchange," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 390(1), pages 98-109.
- Benoit Mandelbrot, 1963. "The Variation of Certain Speculative Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 36, pages 394.
- Dion Harmon & Marcus A. M. de Aguiar & David D. Chinellato & Dan Braha & Irving R. Epstein & Yaneer Bar-Yam, 2011. "Predicting economic market crises using measures of collective panic," Papers 1102.2620, arXiv.org.
- O. A. Rosso & C. Masoller, 2009. "Detecting and quantifying temporal correlations in stochastic resonance via information theory measures," The European Physical Journal B - Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, Springer, vol. 69(1), pages 37-43, May.
- Ivanova, K. & Shirer, H.N. & Clothiaux, E.E. & Kitova, N. & Mikhalev, M.A. & Ackerman, T.P. & Ausloos, M., 2002. "A case study of stratus cloud base height multifractal fluctuations," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 308(1), pages 518-532.
- Sun, Xia & Chen, Huiping & Yuan, Yongzhuang & Wu, Ziqin, 2001. "Predictability of multifractal analysis of Hang Seng stock index in Hong Kong," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 301(1), pages 473-482.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1204.3136. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (arXiv administrators)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.