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Predicting economic market crises using measures of collective panic

Author

Listed:
  • Dion Harmon
  • Marcus A. M. de Aguiar
  • David D. Chinellato
  • Dan Braha
  • Irving R. Epstein
  • Yaneer Bar-Yam

Abstract

Predicting panic is of critical importance in many areas of human and animal behavior, notably in the context of economics. The recent financial crisis is a case in point. Panic may be due to a specific external threat, or self-generated nervousness. Here we show that the recent economic crisis and earlier large single-day panics were preceded by extended periods of high levels of market mimicry --- direct evidence of uncertainty and nervousness, and of the comparatively weak influence of external news. High levels of mimicry can be a quite general indicator of the potential for self-organized crises.

Suggested Citation

  • Dion Harmon & Marcus A. M. de Aguiar & David D. Chinellato & Dan Braha & Irving R. Epstein & Yaneer Bar-Yam, 2011. "Predicting economic market crises using measures of collective panic," Papers 1102.2620, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1102.2620
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    Cited by:

    1. Nicolas Perony & Claudio J Tessone & Barbara König & Frank Schweitzer, 2012. "How Random Is Social Behaviour? Disentangling Social Complexity through the Study of a Wild House Mouse Population," PLOS Computational Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(11), pages 1-11, November.
    2. Jun-ichi Maskawa & Joshin Murai & Koji Kuroda, 2013. "Market-wide price co-movement around crashes in the Tokyo Stock Exchange," Papers 1306.2188, arXiv.org.
    3. Matija Piv{s}korec & Nino Antulov-Fantulin & Petra Kralj Novak & Igor Mozetiv{c} & Miha Grv{c}ar & Irena Vodenska & Tomislav v{S}muc, 2014. "News Cohesiveness: an Indicator of Systemic Risk in Financial Markets," Papers 1402.3483, arXiv.org.
    4. Dror Y Kenett & Matthias Raddant & Thomas Lux & Eshel Ben-Jacob, 2012. "Evolvement of Uniformity and Volatility in the Stressed Global Financial Village," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 7(2), pages 1-8, February.
    5. Eder Lucio Fonseca & Fernando F. Ferreira & Paulsamy Muruganandam & Hilda A. Cerdeira, 2012. "Identifying financial crises in real time," Papers 1204.3136, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2012.
    6. Aymeric Vié & Alfredo J. Morales, 2021. "How Connected is Too Connected? Impact of Network Topology on Systemic Risk and Collapse of Complex Economic Systems," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 57(4), pages 1327-1351, April.
    7. Benoît Desmarchelier & Eddy S. Fang, 2016. "Social Media and the Diffusion of Information: A Computational Experiment on the Emergence of Food Scares," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 69(4), pages 559-583, November.
    8. Braha, Dan & de Aguiar, Marcus A. M., 2018. "Voting contagion: Modeling and analysis of a century of U.S. presidential elections," SocArXiv mzxnr, Center for Open Science.
    9. Hamza Bodor & Laurent Carlier, 2024. "Stylized Facts and Market Microstructure: An In-Depth Exploration of German Bond Futures Market," Papers 2401.10722, arXiv.org.
    10. Dion Harmon & Marco Lagi & Marcus A M de Aguiar & David D Chinellato & Dan Braha & Irving R Epstein & Yaneer Bar-Yam, 2015. "Anticipating Economic Market Crises Using Measures of Collective Panic," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(7), pages 1-27, July.
    11. Dhaene, Jan & Linders, Daniël & Schoutens, Wim & Vyncke, David, 2012. "The Herd Behavior Index: A new measure for the implied degree of co-movement in stock markets," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 357-370.
    12. Daniël Linders & Jan Dhaene & Wim Schoutens, 2015. "Option prices and model-free measurement of implied herd behavior in stock markets," International Journal of Financial Engineering (IJFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 2(02), pages 1-35.
    13. Dror Y Kenett & Yoash Shapira & Asaf Madi & Sharron Bransburg-Zabary & Gitit Gur-Gershgoren & Eshel Ben-Jacob, 2011. "Index Cohesive Force Analysis Reveals That the US Market Became Prone to Systemic Collapses Since 2002," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 6(4), pages 1-8, April.

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