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The (unfortunate) complexity of the economy

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  • Jean-Philippe Bouchaud

Abstract

This article is a follow-up of a short essay that appeared in Nature 455, 1181 (2008) [arXiv:0810.5306]. It has become increasingly clear that the erratic dynamics of markets is mostly endogenous and not due to the rational processing of exogenous news. I elaborate on the idea that spin-glass type of problems, where the combination of competition and heterogeneities generically leads to long epochs of statis interrupted by crises and hyper-sensitivity to small changes of the environment, could be metaphors for the complexity of economic systems. I argue that the most valuable contribution of physics to economics might end up being of methodological nature, and that simple models from physics and agent based numerical simulations, although highly stylized, are more realistic than the traditional models of economics that assume rational agents with infinite foresight and infinite computing abilities.

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  • Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, 2009. "The (unfortunate) complexity of the economy," Papers 0904.0805, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:0904.0805
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    Cited by:

    1. Alessandro Spelta & Guido Ascari & Nicolò Pecora, 2012. "Boom and Burst in Housing Market with Heterogeneous Agents," Quaderni di Dipartimento 177, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Quantitative Methods.
    2. Damien Challet, 2016. "Regrets, learning and wisdom," Papers 1605.01052, arXiv.org.
    3. Bertotti, M.L. & Chattopadhyay, A.K. & Modanese, G., 2017. "Stochastic effects in a discretized kinetic model of economic exchange," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 471(C), pages 724-732.
    4. Ilaria Bordino & Stefano Battiston & Guido Caldarelli & Matthieu Cristelli & Antti Ukkonen & Ingmar Weber, 2012. "Web Search Queries Can Predict Stock Market Volumes," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 7(7), pages 1-17, July.
    5. Matthieu Garcin, 2023. "Complexity measure, kernel density estimation, bandwidth selection, and the efficient market hypothesis," Papers 2305.13123, arXiv.org.
    6. Jean-Claude Trichet, 2013. "Unconventional Monetary Policy Measures: Principles-Conditions-Raison d’etre," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 9(1), pages 229-250, January.
    7. Stavros Drakopoulos & Ioannis Katselidis, 2015. "From Edgeworth to econophysics: a methodological perspective," Journal of Economic Methodology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(1), pages 77-95, March.
    8. Sami Al-Suwailem, 2012. "Complexity and Endogenous Instability," ASSRU Discussion Papers 1203, ASSRU - Algorithmic Social Science Research Unit.
    9. Matthieu Garcin, 2023. "Complexity measure, kernel density estimation, bandwidth selection, and the efficient market hypothesis," Working Papers hal-04102815, HAL.
    10. Lisewski, Andreas Martin & Lichtarge, Olivier, 2010. "Untangling complex networks: Risk minimization in financial markets through accessible spin glass ground states," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 389(16), pages 3250-3253.
    11. Chami Figueira, F. & Moura, N.J. & Ribeiro, M.B., 2011. "The Gompertz–Pareto income distribution," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 390(4), pages 689-698.
    12. Moura, N.J. & Ribeiro, Marcelo B., 2013. "Testing the Goodwin growth-cycle macroeconomic dynamics in Brazil," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(9), pages 2088-2103.
    13. Kakarot-Handtke, Egmont, 2014. "Onblog Economics Muddle Busting," MPRA Paper 60543, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Gabriele Ranco & Darko Aleksovski & Guido Caldarelli & Miha Grčar & Igor Mozetič, 2015. "The Effects of Twitter Sentiment on Stock Price Returns," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(9), pages 1-21, September.
    15. Kakarot-Handtke, Egmont, 2013. "Toolism! A Critique of Econophysics," MPRA Paper 46630, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Andre R. Neveu, 2018. "A survey of network-based analysis and systemic risk measurement," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 13(2), pages 241-281, July.
    17. Orrell, David, 2020. "A quantum model of supply and demand," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 539(C).
    18. Trichet, J.C., 2011. "Intellectual challenges to financial stability analysis in the era of macroprudential oversight," Financial Stability Review, Banque de France, issue 15, pages 139-149, February.
    19. Aleksejus Kononovicius & Valentas Daniunas, 2013. "Agent-based and macroscopic modeling of the complex socio-economic systems," Papers 1303.3693, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2013.

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