IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/queddp/275199.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Fiscal Policy and the Real Exchange Rate Queen's Discussion Paper

Author

Listed:
  • Devereux, Michael
  • Purvis, Douglas D.

Abstract

This paper reconsiders some conventional notions about fiscal policy under flexible exchange rates using an extended version of the well-known Dornbusch ',overshooting" model. Three widely held views are challenged. These are: (1) the Mundell-Fleming result that fiscal policy is ineffective under flexible exchange rates; (2) that real shocks (including fiscal policy) do not cause exchange rate overshooting; and (3) that real shocks are not important in explaining high exchange rate variability. In our model output is affected by fiscal policy both in the short run and long run". It is possible for unanticipated fiscal policy to cause perverse output effects in the short run; anticipated future fiscal policy necessarily leads to a fall in current output. Our results also show that fiscal policy can lead to exchange rate overshooting even in the case where monetary policy also does. Further, in this model both fiscal and monetary policy must cause either nominal exchange rate overshooting or perverse domestic interest rate effects. Finally, the results suggest that real shocks are a potential source of exchange rate variability.

Suggested Citation

  • Devereux, Michael & Purvis, Douglas D., 1984. "Fiscal Policy and the Real Exchange Rate Queen's Discussion Paper," Queen's Institute for Economic Research Discussion Papers 275199, Queen's University - Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:queddp:275199
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.275199
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/275199/files/QUEENS-IER-PAPER-593.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.275199?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Wilson, Charles A, 1979. "Anticipated Shocks and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(3), pages 639-647, June.
    2. Willem H. Buiter & Marcus Miller, 1991. "Real Exchange Rate Overshooting and the Output Cost of Bringing Down Inflation," NBER Chapters, in: International Volatility and Economic Growth: The First Ten Years of The International Seminar on Macroeconomics, pages 239-277, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Blanchard, Olivier J, 1981. "Output, the Stock Market, and Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(1), pages 132-143, March.
    4. Douglas D. Purvis, 1976. "Wages, the Terms of Trade, and the Exchange Rate Regime," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 438, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    5. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-1176, December.
    6. Djajic, Slobodan, 1984. "Currency Management and Economic Stability," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 94(374), pages 324-339, June.
    7. David Backus, 1984. "Empirical Models of the Exchange Rate: Separating the Wheat from the Chaff," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 17(4), pages 824-846, November.
    8. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1984. "Exchange Rate Dynamics with Sluggish Prices under Alternative Price-Adjustment Rules," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 25(1), pages 159-174, February.
    9. Gray, Malcolm R & Turnovsky, Stephen J, 1979. "The Stability of Exchange Rate Dynamics under Perfect Myopic Foresight," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 20(3), pages 643-660, October.
    10. Jeffrey Sachs, 1980. "Wages, Flexible Exchange Rates, and Macroeconomic Policy," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 94(4), pages 731-747.
    11. Buiter, William H & Purvis, Douglas D, 1980. "Oil, Disinflation, and Export Competitiveness : A Model of the "Dutch Disease"," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 185, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    12. Willem H. Buiter & Marcus Miller, 1983. "Real Exchange Rate Overshooting and the Output Cost of Bringing Down Inflation: Some Further Results," NBER Chapters, in: Exchange Rates and International Macroeconomics, pages 317-368, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Casas, F R, 1975. "Efficient Macroeconomic Stabilization Policies under Floating Exchange Rates," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 16(3), pages 682-698, October.
    14. Eastwood, R K & Venables, A J, 1982. "The Macroeconomic Implications of a Resource Discovery in an Open Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 92(366), pages 285-299, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Obstfeld, Maurice & Stockman, Alan C., 1985. "Exchange-rate dynamics," Handbook of International Economics, in: R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 18, pages 917-977, Elsevier.
    2. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1982. "Relative Prices, Employment, and the Exchange Rate in an Economy with Foresight," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(5), pages 1219-1242, September.
    3. Grande, G., 1997. "Properties of the Monetary Conditions Index," Papers 324, Banca Italia - Servizio di Studi.
    4. van de Klundert, Theo C N J & van der Ploeg, Frederick, 1987. "Wage Rigidity and Capital Mobility in an Optimizing Model of a Small Open Economy," CEPR Discussion Papers 168, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1984. "Exchange Rate Dynamics with Sluggish Prices under Alternative Price-Adjustment Rules," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 25(1), pages 159-174, February.
    6. Phornchanok Cumperayot, 2003. "Dusting off the Perception of Risk and Returns in FOREX Markets," CESifo Working Paper Series 904, CESifo.
    7. Oscar Bajo Rubio, 1998. "Monetary and Fiscal Policies in Dynamic Models of the Open Economy," Documentos de Trabajo - Lan Gaiak Departamento de Economía - Universidad Pública de Navarra 9806, Departamento de Economía - Universidad Pública de Navarra.
    8. Cox, Grant M. & Harvie, Charles, 2010. "Resource price turbulence and macroeconomic adjustment for a resource exporter: A conceptual framework for policy analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 469-489, March.
    9. Pierre Villa, 1991. "Règles de taux d'intérêt en changes flexibles et en présence de chocs permanents," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 42(5), pages 867-900.
    10. Harvie, Charles & Cox, Grant M, 2009. "Resource Price Turbulence and Macroeconomic Adjustment for a Resource Exporter: a conceptual framework for policy analysis," Economics Working Papers wp09-06, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.
    11. Willem H. Buiter & Marcus H. Miller, 1983. "Costs and Benefits of an Anti-Inflationary Policy: Questions and Issues," NBER Working Papers 1252, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Stanley Fischer, 1984. "Real Balances, the Exchange Rate and Indexation: Real Variables in Disinflation," NBER Working Papers 1497, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Rudiger Dornbusch & Jeffrey Frankel, 1988. "The Flexible Exchange Rate System: Experience and Alternatives," International Economic Association Series, in: Silvio Borner (ed.), International Finance and Trade in a Polycentric World, chapter 7, pages 151-208, Palgrave Macmillan.
    14. Frenkel, Jacob A. & Mussa, Michael L., 1985. "Asset markets, exchange rates and the balance of payments," Handbook of International Economics, in: R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 14, pages 679-747, Elsevier.
    15. Goldberg, Michael D., 2000. "On empirical exchange rate models: what does a rejection of the symmetry restriction on short-run interest rates mean?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 673-688, October.
    16. Rudiger Dornbusch & Stanley Fischer, 1986. "The Open Economy: Implications for Monetary and Fiscal Policy," NBER Chapters, in: The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change, pages 459-516, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Gonyung Park & Young-yong Kim, 2003. "An empirical analysis of nominal rigidities and exchange rate overshooting: an intertemporal approach," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(2), pages 153-166.
    18. William H. Branson & Arminio Fraga & Robert A. Johnson, 1985. "Expected Fiscal Policy and the Recession of 1982," NBER Working Papers 1784, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Chao, Chi-Chur & Hu, Shih-Wen & Lai, Ching-Chong & Tai, Meng-Yi & Wang, Vey, 2013. "Tariff-tax reform and exchange rate dynamics in a monetary economy," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 63-73.
    20. Laffargue Jean-pierre, 1981. "Politiques budgétaire et monétaire en régime de changes flexibles," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 8126, CEPREMAP.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:queddp:275199. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/qedquca.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.