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Assessing short-term and long-term economic and environmental effects of the COVID crisis in France

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  • Hamdi-Cherif, Meriem
  • Malliet, Paul
  • Reynès, Frédéric
  • Landa, Gissela
  • Saussay, Aurélien

Abstract

In response to the COVID-19 health crisis, the French government has imposed drastic lockdown measures for a period of 55 days. This paper provides a quantitative assessment of the economic and environmental impacts of these measures in the short and long term. We use a Computable General Equilibrium model designed to assess environmental and energy policies impacts at the macroeconomic and sectoral levels. We find that the lockdown has led to a significant decrease in economic output of 5% of GDP, but a positive environmental impact with a 6.6% reduction in CO2 emissions in 2020. Both decreases are temporary: economic and environmental indicators return to their baseline trajectory after a few years. CO2 emissions even end up significantly higher after the COVID-19 crisis when we account for persistently low oil prices. We then investigate whether implementing carbon pricing can still yield positive macroeconomic dividends in the post-COVID recovery. We find that implementing ambitious carbon pricing speeds up economic recovery while significantly reducing CO2 emissions. By maintaining high fossil fuel prices, carbon taxation reduces the imports of fossil energy and stimulates energy efficiency investments while the full redistribution of tax proceeds does not hamper the recovery

Suggested Citation

  • Hamdi-Cherif, Meriem & Malliet, Paul & Reynès, Frédéric & Landa, Gissela & Saussay, Aurélien, 2020. "Assessing short-term and long-term economic and environmental effects of the COVID crisis in France," Conference papers 330205, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:pugtwp:330205
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Cassetti, Gabriele & Boitier, Baptiste & Elia, Alessia & Le Mouël, Pierre & Gargiulo, Maurizio & Zagamé, Paul & Nikas, Alexandros & Koasidis, Konstantinos & Doukas, Haris & Chiodi, Alessandro, 2023. "The interplay among COVID-19 economic recovery, behavioural changes, and the European Green Deal: An energy-economic modelling perspective," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(PC).
    2. Abbas, Jawad & Wang, Lisu & Ben Belgacem, Samira & Pawar, Puja Sunil & Najam, Hina & Abbas, Jaffar, 2023. "Investment in renewable energy and electricity output: Role of green finance, environmental tax, and geopolitical risk: Empirical evidence from China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 269(C).
    3. Chen, Shengming & Wang, Fushuai & Haroon, Muhammad, 2023. "The impact of green economic recovery on economic growth and ecological footprint: A case study in developing countries of Asia," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PA).
    4. Tzen-Ying Ling, 2021. "Investigating the malleable socioeconomic resilience pathway to urban cohesion: a case of Taipei metropolitan area," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(9), pages 13016-13041, September.
    5. Imen Khanchel & Naima Lassoued & Rym Gargoury, 2023. "CSR and firm value: is CSR valuable during the COVID 19 crisis in the French market?," Journal of Management & Governance, Springer;Accademia Italiana di Economia Aziendale (AIDEA), vol. 27(2), pages 575-601, June.
    6. Irena Lacka & Blazej Supron, 2021. "The Impact of COVID-19 on Road Freight Transport Evidence from Poland," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(Special 3), pages 319-333.
    7. Cerqueira, Pedro André & Pereira da Silva, Patrícia, 2023. "Assessment of the impact of COVID-19 lockdown measures on electricity consumption – Evidence from Portugal and Spain," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 282(C).
    8. Gagnon, Joseph E. & Kamin, Steven B. & Kearns, John, 2023. "The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on global GDP growth," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    9. Malliet, Paul & Reynès, Frédéric G., 2022. "Empirical estimates of the elasticity of substitution of a KLEM production function without nesting constraints: The case of the Variable Output Elasticity-Cobb Douglas," Conference papers 333423, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    10. Jiang, Shiqi & Lin, Xinyue & Qi, Lingli & Zhang, Yongqiang & Sharp, Basil, 2022. "The macro-economic and CO2 emissions impacts of COVID-19 and recovery policies in China," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 981-996.
    11. Zhang, Wen & Wu, Zhibin & Zeng, Xiaojun & Zhu, Changhui, 2023. "An ensemble dynamic self-learning model for multiscale carbon price forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(PC).

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