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Welfare Effects of the 2022 U.S. HPAI Outbreak

Author

Listed:
  • Ferrier, Peyton
  • Saavoss, Monica
  • Williamson, Samuel

Abstract

Shocks to agricultural markets due to animal disease outbreaks are especially disruptive. We use an Equilibrium Displacement Model (EDM) to estimate the price and welfare effects of the U.S. outbreak of High Path Avian Influenza (HPAI) that reduced turkey production by 9 to 12 percent and egg production by 5 to 7 percent over the last three quarters of 2022. We find that HPAI reduced consumer welfare by $199.2 million for turkey and $3.56 billion for eggs and reduced coarse grain expenditures by $112.3 million.

Suggested Citation

  • Ferrier, Peyton & Saavoss, Monica & Williamson, Samuel, 2024. "Welfare Effects of the 2022 U.S. HPAI Outbreak," 2024 Conference, April 22-23, 2024, St. Louis, Missouri 379006, NCR-134/ NCCC-134 Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:nccc24:379006
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.379006
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Thompson, Jada M., 2018. "Effects Of Regionalized Trade Restrictions On Quantity Exported During A Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Event," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 50(2), pages 270-289, May.
    2. Thompson, Jada M. & Pendell, Dustin L. & Boyer, Tim & Patyk, Kelly A. & Malladi, Sasidhar & Weaver, J. Todd, 2019. "Economic Impacts of Business Continuity on an Outbreak of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza in Minnesota Egg Laying Operations," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 51(2), pages 235-248, May.
    3. Biden, Scott & Ker, Alan P. & Larue, Bruno & Duff, Stephen, 2024. "Economic impacts of a disease outbreak in Canada’s pork industry: Case of a price-taking, open country," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    4. MacLachlan, Matthew J. & Boussios, David & Hagerman, Amy D., 2021. "Market Responses to Export Restrictions from Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Outbreaks," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 47(01), January.
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