Effects of the 2018 - 2020 disturbances on the projected carbon balance of German forests and LULUCF climate protection targets

Drought, heat and bark-beetle infestations in the years 2018 till 2022 have had severe impacts on German forests. With the results of the National Forest Inventory 2022 being available since late 2023, new projections of possible future development of carbon stocks in forests and the Harvested Wood Products pool have been estimated. Such projections are required by the German Federal Climate Protection Law (CPL) on an annual basis, for policy evaluation and information. Three scenarios have been constructed and implemented in the Matrix-Model, using data from the National Forest Inventories 2012 and 2022, and the Carbon Inventory 2017: - Changes and developments as in the period 2013 – 2017 (“optimal conditions”), - as in the period 2018 – 2022 (including disturbances, “pessimistic”), and - as in the period 2013 – 2022 (”medium”). The results show that, under “optimal” conditions, -40 to -30 Mt CO2 may be removed from the atmosphere and stored in “living biomass” annually, the “medium” scenario will result in appr. -10 Mt CO2 a-1, and the “pessimistic” scenario in net emissions of 20 – 10 Mt CO2. In the two “extreme” scenarios, sequestration will drop by appr. 10 Mt CO2 per year until 2050. As a result, the targets set by the CPL will be missed significantly even under “optimal” conditions and by up to 60 Mt CO2 per year in 2030 in the “medium” scenario. Measures already implemented in LULUCF will alleviate this by just 3.7 Mt CO2-eq. per year.