IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Economic Impacts of Soybean Rust on the US Soybean Sector


  • Gomez, Miguel I.
  • Nunez, Hector M.
  • Onal, Hayri


The spread of Asian Soybean Rust (ASR) represents a real threat to the U.S. soybean sector. We assess the potential impacts of ASR on domestic soybean production and commodity markets as well as the competitive position of the US in the soybean export market. We develop a mathematical stochastic dynamic sector model with endogenous prices to assess the economic impacts of ASR on US agriculture. The model takes into account the disease spread during the cropping season, the inherent uncertainty regarding the risk of infection, and the dichotomous decisions that farmers make (no treatment, preventive treatment, and curative treatment) facing the risk of infection. Our results suggest substantial impacts from potential ASR spread on agricultural output, prices and exports. Our simulation results suggest that substantial losses to the US soybean producers may be avoided by establishing effective soybean rust controls. ASR control policies can be particularly efficient if applied in the gateway regions on the path of the ASR spread. On the other hand, our results indicate a possible gradual shift in soybean production from lower-latitude states toward higher-latitude states.

Suggested Citation

  • Gomez, Miguel I. & Nunez, Hector M. & Onal, Hayri, 2009. "Economic Impacts of Soybean Rust on the US Soybean Sector," Working Papers 51177, Cornell University, Department of Applied Economics and Management.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:cudawp:51177

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Gary Fields & Ravi Kanbur, 2007. "Minimum wages and poverty with income-sharing," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 5(2), pages 135-147, August.
    2. Neumark, David & Wascher, William L., 2007. "Minimum Wages and Employment," Foundations and Trends(R) in Microeconomics, now publishers, vol. 3(1–2), pages 1-182, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)


    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

    Cited by:

    1. repec:nbr:nberch:13943 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Carroll, Christine & Carter, Colin A. & Goodhue, Rachael E. & Lin, C.-Y. Cynthia & Subbarao, Krishna, 2013. "Bioeconomic Modeling of an Imported Disease in California Lettuce," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 150495, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    3. Christine L. Carroll & Colin A. Carter & Rachael E. Goodhue & C.-Y. Cynthia Lin Lawell, 2017. "Crop Disease and Agricultural Productivity," NBER Chapters,in: Understanding Productivity Growth in Agriculture National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item


    Asian Soybean Rust; Stochastic Models; Dynamic Models; Agribusiness; Marketing; C61; Q13;

    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • Q13 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Markets and Marketing; Cooperatives; Agribusiness

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:cudawp:51177. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (AgEcon Search). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.