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The impact of UK food and bioenergy imports on global land use under future socioeconomic scenarios (UK-SSPs)

Author

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  • Arendarczyk, Bart
  • Alexander, Peter
  • Brown, Calum
  • Rounsevell, Mark

Abstract

Food imports are a critical part of the UK’s food supply, accounting for nearly half of all food consumed domestically. Reliance on imports raises concerns about food security as well as environmental impacts due to land use associated with imported commodities (the land footprint). Previous studies estimate that approximately 10 Mha of agricultural land is used globally outside the UK to produce food destined for the UK. However, previous methods fail to account for marginal yield effects as well as present and future feedbacks between food prices, demand, production, and international trade. Using a global land use modelling framework, LandSyMM, we produce estimates of the global land use impact of UK food and bioenergy imports. We simulate food demand, agricultural production, and trade under a range of global and UK-specific socioeconomic and climate scenarios. We estimate that 42 Mha of agricultural land could be currently linked to UK food and bioenergy imports, trending towards 22-46 Mha by 2070-2079. Given 17 Mha of agricultural land in the UK, our results suggest that UK food imports could have a disproportionate impact on global land use compared to domestic production and should be an important focus for evaluating the environmental consequences of food production.

Suggested Citation

  • Arendarczyk, Bart & Alexander, Peter & Brown, Calum & Rounsevell, Mark, 2023. "The impact of UK food and bioenergy imports on global land use under future socioeconomic scenarios (UK-SSPs)," 97th Annual Conference, March 27-29, 2023, Warwick University, Coventry, UK 334509, Agricultural Economics Society - AES.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aesc23:334509
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.334509
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Resource/Energy Economics and Policy; International Relations/Trade;

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