Adoption potential of VOC-based pest and pathogen detection technologies by European nurseries: Insights from a discrete choice experiment

Plant products issued a plant passport upon risk-based border inspections can circulate freely within the European Union. Border control inspections are imperfect, and pests or pathogens may remain undetected. Post-border detection efforts can reduce the risk of further spread and partly rely on voluntary actions by actors involved in plant trade, such as nurseries. Nurseries have a direct interest in healthy plant material, yet investments in early detection technologies remain driven by private incentives. We investigate nursery preferences for volatile organic compound (VOC) “e-nose” sensors using a discrete choice experiment among 343 nursery operators in Italy, Romania, Germany, and France. Respondents evaluated VOC sensor alternatives against the status quo of existing inspection practices. Choice data were analyzed using mixed logit and latent class models. The predicted probability of choosing a VOC sensor alternative was 76%. Adoption decisions were primarily shaped by cost considerations and performance-related attributes, particularly detection speed and reliability. Certification potential and ownership structure of the technology were considered less important. Cross-country differences indicate that nurseries place varying importance on technology attributes, suggesting that technology design and commercialization strategies should account for heterogeneous end-user preferences. Adoption likelihood is higher among nurseries that are members of professional associations, pointing to the role of networks in fostering technology diffusion.