IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/aaea25/361012.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

U.S.-China Dairy Production Systems and Producer Subsidy: The Case of Twin Tariffs

Author

Listed:
  • Li, Youmin
  • Schmitz, Andrew
  • Weng, Weizhe

Abstract

The trade war was triggered by US concerns about the trade deficit, intellectual property theft, and unfair trade practices. This paper studied the far-reaching impacts of the U.S.-China trade war on agricultural trade dynamics, focusing on the Chinese dairy-livestock belt (primarily in Inner Mongolia) and U.S. agricultural competitiveness. According to time-series data from the China Dairy Association, the paper identified a marked decline in per capita milk production in Inner Mongolia and highlights the economic ripple effects of tariff policies on both nations. The imposition of tariffs on critical commodities, such as alfalfa, oats, and soybeans disrupted supply chains and escalated production costs for Chinese dairy farmers, while simultaneously reducing the global competitiveness of U.S. exports. The paper further analyzes various scenarios regarding tariff impacts and examines how subsidies mitigate the effects of twin tariffs. Results illusion that tariffs on inelastic goods disproportionately affect economic efficiency, leading to cascading supply chain issues.

Suggested Citation

  • Li, Youmin & Schmitz, Andrew & Weng, Weizhe, 2025. "U.S.-China Dairy Production Systems and Producer Subsidy: The Case of Twin Tariffs," 2025 AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2025, Denver, CO 361012, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea25:361012
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.361012
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/361012/files/Tariffs%20Impacts%20on%20China%20Dairy%20Production%20System%20and%20Producer%20Subsidy%20Effects-%20Case%20of%20Twin%20Tariffs.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.361012?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Xiaohua Cheng & Difei Xu & Hui Sun & Meiyi Zheng & Jintao Li, 2022. "Rural Spatial Differentiation and Revitalization Approaches in China: A Case Study of Qingdao City," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(24), pages 1-16, December.
    2. Schmitz, Andrew & Nguyen, Ly, 2022. "Seafood Supply and Demand Disruptions: The Covid-19 Pandemic and Shrimp," 2022 Allied Social Sciences Association (ASSA) Annual Meeting (Virtual), January 7-9, 2022 316534, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    3. Bu, Di & Liao, Yin, 2022. "Land property rights and rural enterprise growth: Evidence from land titling reform in China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    4. Schmitz, Andrew & Nguyen, Ly, 2022. "Seafood Supply and Demand Disruptions: The Covid-19 Pandemic and Shrimp," 2023 Allied Social Sciences Association (ASSA) Annual Meeting, January 6-8, 2023, New Orleans, Louisiana 316534, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yuan, Chunlai & Fan, Yuxi & Xu, Baoxiang, 2025. "Impact of China’s rural collective construction land marketization reform on unlocking entrepreneurial potential," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    2. Mingyi Yan & Xizi Cao, 2024. "Digital Economy Development, Rural Land Certification, and Rural Industrial Integration," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(11), pages 1-27, May.
    3. Jiaxin Shi & Wei Dou, 2025. "Do Land Development Rights Increase Agricultural Land Prices? Empirical Evidence from China’s Land Market," Land, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-22, March.
    4. Dan Pan & Jinlong Zhou & Yi Yu & Shengdong Chen, 2024. "Rural Collective Property Rights System Reform and Urban-Rural Income Gap: A County-Scale Big Data Analysis in China," SAGE Open, , vol. 14(3), pages 21582440241, August.
    5. Xu, Guangyu & Chen, Huang, 2025. "Inclusive growth dilemma: Weighing the pros and cons of land market reform," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    6. Shiyi Chen & Wanlin Liu & Hong Song & Qing Zhang, 2024. "Government‐led e‐commerce expansion project and rural household income: Evidence and mechanisms," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 62(1), pages 150-174, January.
    7. Liu, Shouying & Ma, Sen & Yin, Lijuan & Zhu, Jiong, 2023. "Land titling, human capital misallocation, and agricultural productivity in China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 165(C).
    8. Xu, Meng & Wang, Xiaoxi & Chen, Kevin, 2025. "Leveraging agricultural production organizations to reduce fertilizer use: Evidence from China," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    9. Nguyen, Ly & Schmitz, Andrew, 2022. "The Welfare Impacts of Covid-19 on U.S. Salmon Sector," 2022 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Anaheim, California 322351, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    10. Hayward, Mathew & Cheng, Zhiming & Wang, Haining & Smyth, Russell, 2023. "Parental influence and the propensity for entrepreneurship: Evidence from the one-child policy," Journal of Business Venturing Insights, Elsevier, vol. 20(C).
    11. Ruonan Wang & Xiaoyan Li & Jinyang Wei & Fengtian Zheng, 2024. "The Impact of Rural–Urban Student Mobility on the Efficiency of Resource Allocation in China’s Rural Households: Optimization or Distortion?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(11), pages 1-24, May.
    12. Liu, Xinyue & Wang, Xiaobing & Xu, Zhigang, 2023. "The polarization and constraints of scale farming in China under the impact of rising wages," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    13. Zhang, Yinze & Ruan, Jianqing & Zhang, Yuwei, 2025. "Industrial policies and development of grain clusters: Evidence from China's policy in major grain-producing areas," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    14. Haolong Liu, 2022. "The Tripartite Evolutionary Game of Green Agro-Product Supply in an Agricultural Industrialization Consortium," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(18), pages 1-19, September.
    15. Xinmin Liu & Yue Zheng & Wencheng Yu, 2023. "The Nonlinear Relationship between Intellectual Property Protection and Farmers’ Entrepreneurship: An Empirical Analysis Based on CHFS Data," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-16, March.
    16. Bi, Guohua & Yang, Qingyuan, 2023. "The spatial production of rural settlements as rural homestays in the context of rural revitalization: Evidence from a rural tourism experiment in a Chinese village," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    17. Huang, Wei & Luo, Mi & Ta, Yuqi & Wang, Boxian, 2024. "Land expropriation, household behaviors, and health outcomes: Evidence from China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).
    18. Jinglin Jiang & Hongyu Xiang, 2024. "Leadership and Entrepreneurship: Evidence from a Chinese Household Survey," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 14(1), pages 1-2.
    19. Gong, Maogang & Zhong, Yanan & Zhang, Yun & Elahi, Ehsan & Yang, Yuanxi, 2023. "Have the new round of agricultural land system reform improved farmers' agricultural inputs in China?," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    20. Xu, Zhihua & Fan, Duolan & Chen, Ji & Li, Shuqin, 2025. "From policy to participation: Exploring the influence of property rights on rural revitalization efforts," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 1660-1674.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:aaea25:361012. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aaeaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.