IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/aaea02/19661.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Risk And Structural Change In Agriculture: How Income Shocks Influence Farm Size

Author

Listed:
  • Roberts, Michael J.
  • Key, Nigel D.

Abstract

Farm-level Census data and county-level income shock data reveal that past unexpected income shocks affect the rate of change in average farm size. Average farm size increases more quickly in counties experiencing negative income shocks as compared to counties experiencing positive income shocks. This result cannot be explained by perfect-market models, which predict farm size should adjust according to changes in the relative prices of labor and capital. We posit a model wherein cash flows affect liquidity, which in turn affects farm borrowing and capital costs. In the model, farms that do not face liquidity constraints benefit from negative income shocks because they reduce land values, so these farms expand while liquidity-constrained farms contract. Observed farm consolidation patterns and farm exit rates are consistent with a model wherein liquidity constraints affect small farms more than large farms.

Suggested Citation

  • Roberts, Michael J. & Key, Nigel D., 2002. "Risk And Structural Change In Agriculture: How Income Shocks Influence Farm Size," 2002 Annual meeting, July 28-31, Long Beach, CA 19661, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea02:19661
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19661
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Christopher D. Carroll, 1997. "Buffer-Stock Saving and the Life Cycle/Permanent Income Hypothesis," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 112(1), pages 1-55.
    2. Matthew D. Shapiro, 1986. "Investment, Output, and the Cost of Capital," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 17(1), pages 111-164.
    3. Gilchrist, Simon & Himmelberg, Charles P., 1995. "Evidence on the role of cash flow for investment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 541-572, December.
    4. Philippe Aghion & Gilles Saint-Paul, 1998. "Uncovering Some Causal Relationships Between Productivity Growth and the Structure of Economic Fluctuations: A Tentative Survey," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 12(2), pages 279-303, July.
    5. Steven M. Fazzari & R. Glenn Hubbard & Bruce C. Petersen, 1988. "Financing Constraints and Corporate Investment," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 19(1), pages 141-206.
    6. Daniel A. Sumner & James D. Leiby, 1987. "An Econometric Analysis of the Effects of Human Capital on Size and Growth among Dairy Farms," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 69(2), pages 465-470.
    7. Joao F. Gomes, 2001. "Financing Investment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1263-1285, December.
    8. Huffman, Wallace E. & Evenson, Robert E., 2000. "Structural and productivity change in US agriculture, 1950-1982," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 24(2), pages 127-147, January.
    9. Stiglitz, Joseph E & Weiss, Andrew, 1981. "Credit Rationing in Markets with Imperfect Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 393-410, June.
    10. Sargent, Thomas J., 1980. ""Tobin's q" and the rate of investment in general equilibrium," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 107-154, January.
    11. repec:hrv:faseco:30752799 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Margarian, Anne, 2010. "Nachbarschafts- Und Konjunktureffekte: Zur Aufgabewahrscheinlichkeit Landwirtschaftlicher Betriebe," 50st Annual Conference, Braunschweig, Germany, September 29-October 1, 2010 93961, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:aaea02:19661. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (AgEcon Search). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/aaeaaea.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.