Risk And Structural Change In Agriculture: How Income Shocks Influence Farm Size
Farm-level Census data and county-level income shock data reveal that past unexpected income shocks affect the rate of change in average farm size. Average farm size increases more quickly in counties experiencing negative income shocks as compared to counties experiencing positive income shocks. This result cannot be explained by perfect-market models, which predict farm size should adjust according to changes in the relative prices of labor and capital. We posit a model wherein cash flows affect liquidity, which in turn affects farm borrowing and capital costs. In the model, farms that do not face liquidity constraints benefit from negative income shocks because they reduce land values, so these farms expand while liquidity-constrained farms contract. Observed farm consolidation patterns and farm exit rates are consistent with a model wherein liquidity constraints affect small farms more than large farms.
|Date of creation:||2002|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: (414) 918-3190
Fax: (414) 276-3349
Web page: http://www.aaea.org
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Gilchrist, S. & Himmelberg, C.P., 1995.
"Evidence on the Role of Cash Flow for Investment,"
95-29, Columbia - Graduate School of Business.
- Simon Gilchrist & Charles P. Himmelberg, 1993. "Evidence on the role of cash flow for investment," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 93-7, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Simon Gilchrist & Charles P. Himmelberg, 1995. "Evidence on the Role of Cash Flow for Investment," Working Papers 95-01, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
- Steven M. Fazzari & R. Glenn Hubbard & BRUCE C. PETERSEN, 1988.
"Financing Constraints and Corporate Investment,"
Brookings Papers on Economic Activity,
Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 19(1), pages 141-206.
- Huffman, Wallace E. & Evenson, Robert E., 2000. "Structural and productivity change in US agriculture, 1950-1982," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 24(2), pages 127-147, January.
- Matthew D. Shapiro, 1986. "Investment, Output, and the Cost of Capital," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 17(1), pages 111-164.
- Joao F. Gomes, 2001. "Financing Investment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1263-1285, December.
- Philippe Aghion & Gilles Saint-Paul, 1998.
"Uncovering Some Causal Relationships Between Productivity Growth and the Structure of Economic Fluctuations: A Tentative Survey,"
CEIS, vol. 12(2), pages 279-303, 07.
- Philippe Aghion & Gilles Saint-Paul, 1993. "Uncovering Some Causal Relationships between Productivity Growth and the Structure of Economic Fluctuations: A Tentative Survey," NBER Working Papers 4603, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Christopher D Carroll, 1990.
"Buffer-Stock Saving and the Life Cycle/Permanent Income Hypothesis,"
Economics Working Paper Archive
371, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics, revised Aug 1996.
- Carroll, Christopher D, 1997. "Buffer-Stock Saving and the Life Cycle/Permanent Income Hypothesis," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 112(1), pages 1-55, February.
- Christopher D. Carroll, 1996. "Buffer-Stock Saving and the Life Cycle/Permanent Income Hypothesis," NBER Working Papers 5788, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Thomas J. Sargent, 1979.
""Tobin's Q" and the rate of investment in general equilibrium,"
40, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Sargent, Thomas J., 1980. ""Tobin's q" and the rate of investment in general equilibrium," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 107-154, January.
- Stiglitz, Joseph E & Weiss, Andrew, 1981. "Credit Rationing in Markets with Imperfect Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 393-410, June.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:aaea02:19661. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (AgEcon Search)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.