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Argumente gegen eine Deflationsgefahr

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  • Grömling, Michael

Abstract

Die deutsche Wirtschaft wird in diesem Jahr stagnieren. Gleichzeitig steigen die Verbraucherpreise mit rund 1 Prozent nur geringfügig an. Deshalb wird vor den Gefahren einer Deflation in Deutschland gewarnt. Ein Vergleich mit der deflationären Entwicklung in Japan in den letzten Jahren zeigt aber, dass die zunächst scheinbaren Parallelen nicht gezogen werden können. Deutschland leidet nicht unter einer geplatzten Spekulationsblase. Außerdem ist das deutsche Bankensystem nicht im japanischen Ausmaß in Mitleidenschaft gezogen. Das ruhige Preisklima verschafft der deutschen Wirtschaft innerhalb der Europäischen Währungsunion vielmehr einen Wettbewerbsvorteil, den der Hochkostenstandort in seiner jetzigen Situation gut gebrauchen kann. Die Lehre, die aus der japanischen Entwicklung gezogen werden kann, ist die Notwendigkeit, dringend erforderliche Strukturreformen umfassend durchzuführen.

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  • Grömling, Michael, 2003. "Argumente gegen eine Deflationsgefahr," IW-Trends – Vierteljahresschrift zur empirischen Wirtschaftsforschung, Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft (IW) / German Economic Institute, vol. 30(2), pages 5-14.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:iwktre:156839
    DOI: 10.2373/1864-810X.03-02-01
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Paul R. Krugman, 1998. "It's Baaack: Japan's Slump and the Return of the Liquidity Trap," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(2), pages 137-206.
    2. Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Kamps, Christophe & Meier, Carsten-Patrick & Oskamp, Frank & Scheide, Joachim, 2003. "Euroland: Erholung gewinnt allmählich an Fahrt," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 2985, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    3. Bernanke, Ben S, 1995. "The Macroeconomics of the Great Depression: A Comparative Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(1), pages 1-28, February.
    4. Lesch, Hagen, 2003. "Europäische Währungsunion und Lohnsenkungswettbewerb," IW-Trends – Vierteljahresschrift zur empirischen Wirtschaftsforschung, Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft (IW) / German Economic Institute, vol. 30(2), pages 15-25.
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    1. Grömling, Michael & Römer, Christof & Schäfer, Holger, 2003. "Konjunkturprognose 2004," IW-Trends – Vierteljahresschrift zur empirischen Wirtschaftsforschung, Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft (IW) / German Economic Institute, vol. 30(3), pages 5-19.

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