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Konjunktur aktuell: Deutsche Wirtschaft überwindet die kurze Schwächephase

Author

Listed:
  • Brautzsch, Hans-Ulrich
  • Drechsel, Katja
  • Drygalla, Andrej
  • El-Shagi, Makram
  • Holtemöller, Oliver
  • Kämpfe, Martina
  • Knedlik, Tobias
  • Lindner, Axel
  • Loose, Brigitte
  • Schultz, Birgit
  • Zeddies, Götz
  • Meier, Carsten-Patrick
  • Dovern, Jonas

Abstract

Die Risiken, die von der Schulden- und Vertrauenskrise in Europa ausgehen und die deutsche Wirtschaft belasten, haben zuletzt etwas nachgelassen; die Aussichten für die deutsche Konjunktur haben sich verbessert. Das Bruttoinlandsprodukt wird in Deutschland nach der Schwächephase im Winterhalbjahr 2011/2012 im Jahr 2012 um 1,3% und im Jahr 2013 um 2,2% zunehmen; die Arbeitslosenquote dürfte weiter sinken – auf 6,4% im Jahr 2012 und auf 6,1% im Jahr 2013. Diese Entwicklung führt – trotz nachlassender Konsolidierungsbemühungen – zu einem raschen Abbau der öffentlichen Neuverschuldung.

Suggested Citation

  • Brautzsch, Hans-Ulrich & Drechsel, Katja & Drygalla, Andrej & El-Shagi, Makram & Holtemöller, Oliver & Kämpfe, Martina & Knedlik, Tobias & Lindner, Axel & Loose, Brigitte & Schultz, Birgit & Zeddies, , 2012. "Konjunktur aktuell: Deutsche Wirtschaft überwindet die kurze Schwächephase," Wirtschaft im Wandel, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), vol. 18(3), pages 80-113.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:iwhwiw:iwh-3-12-3
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    JEL classification:

    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General

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