A methodology for estimating and optimizing effectiveness of Non‐Independent Layered Defense

For many years, systems, developed to be integrated into a layered defense array, were planned through the “Stand Alone” paradigm, assuming that the layers of defense are independent. Almost all published literature dealing with Layered Defense automatically assumes that the layers of defense are independent of each other. The fact is they are not! Defense layers may influence one another in positive and/or negative ways. We attempt to initiate a new look at developing and deploying systems in an integrated array of defense systems, based on the understanding that influences between systems must be taken into account. A methodology for modeling the dependencies between defense systems engagements, of a single attacker, or of a salvo of attackers, is developed in this paper through an “Influence Decay Function” model. A tractable algorithm is developed to compute the complex effectiveness objective functions. The Non Independent Layered Defense Problem (NILDP) is formulated as a Mixed Integer Non Linear Programming problem. The optimization problem for maximum layered defense effectiveness is solved through powerful heuristic methods. The discussion deals with engineering defense systems to operate within complex environments which include not only threat from an opponent but also friendly systems to which integration is not at all trivial. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Syst Eng