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A Bayesian Analysis of Abundance, Trend, and Population Viability for Harbor Seals in Iliamna Lake, Alaska

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  • Peter L. Boveng
  • Jay M. Ver Hoef
  • David E. Withrow
  • Josh M. London

Abstract

Harbor seals in Iliamna Lake, Alaska, are a small, isolated population, and one of only two freshwater populations of harbor seals in the world, yet little is known about their abundance or risk for extinction. Bayesian hierarchical models were used to estimate abundance and trend of this population. Observational models were developed from aerial survey and harvest data, and they included effects for time of year and time of day on survey counts. Underlying models of abundance and trend were based on a Leslie matrix model that used prior information on vital rates from the literature. We developed three scenarios for variability in the priors and used them as part of a sensitivity analysis. The models were fitted using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. The population production rate implied by the vital rate estimates was about 5% per year, very similar to the average annual harvest rate. After a period of growth in the 1980s, the population appears to be relatively stable at around 400 individuals. A population viability analysis assessing the risk of quasi‐extinction, defined as any reduction to 50 animals or below in the next 100 years, ranged from 1% to 3%, depending on the prior scenario. Although this is moderately low risk, it does not include genetic or catastrophic environmental events, which may have occurred to the population in the past, so our results should be applied cautiously.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter L. Boveng & Jay M. Ver Hoef & David E. Withrow & Josh M. London, 2018. "A Bayesian Analysis of Abundance, Trend, and Population Viability for Harbor Seals in Iliamna Lake, Alaska," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(9), pages 1988-2009, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:38:y:2018:i:9:p:1988-2009
    DOI: 10.1111/risa.12988
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jones, Galin L. & Haran, Murali & Caffo, Brian S. & Neath, Ronald, 2006. "Fixed-Width Output Analysis for Markov Chain Monte Carlo," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 101, pages 1537-1547, December.
    2. Jay M. Ver Hoef, 2012. "Who Invented the Delta Method?," The American Statistician, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 66(2), pages 124-127, May.
    3. Jay Ver Hoef & Josh London & Peter Boveng, 2010. "Fast computing of some generalized linear mixed pseudo-models with temporal autocorrelation," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 25(1), pages 39-55, March.
    4. Lev R. Ginzburg & Lawrence B. Slobodkin & Keith Johnson & Andrew G. Bindman, 1982. "Quasiextinction Probabilities as a Measure of Impact on Population Growth," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 2(3), pages 171-181, September.
    5. Josh M London & Jay M Ver Hoef & Steven J Jeffries & Monique M Lance & Peter L Boveng, 2012. "Haul-Out Behavior of Harbor Seals (Phoca vitulina) in Hood Canal, Washington," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 7(6), pages 1-9, June.
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