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Modeling and Managing the Risks of Measles and Rubella: A Global Perspective, Part I

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  • Kimberly M. Thompson
  • Stephen L. Cochi

Abstract

Over the past 50 years, the use of vaccines led to significant decreases in the global burdens of measles and rubella, motivated at least in part by the successive development of global control and elimination targets. The Global Vaccine Action Plan (GVAP) includes specific targets for regional elimination of measles and rubella in five of six regions of the World Health Organization by 2020. Achieving the GVAP measles and rubella goals will require significant immunization efforts and associated financial investments and political commitments. Planning and budgeting for these efforts can benefit from learning some important lessons from the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI). Following an overview of the global context of measles and rubella risks and discussion of lessons learned from the GPEI, we introduce the contents of the special issue on modeling and managing the risks of measles and rubella. This introduction describes the synthesis of the literature available to support evidence‐based model inputs to support the development of an integrated economic and dynamic disease transmission model to support global efforts to optimally manage these diseases globally using vaccines.

Suggested Citation

  • Kimberly M. Thompson & Stephen L. Cochi, 2016. "Modeling and Managing the Risks of Measles and Rubella: A Global Perspective, Part I," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(7), pages 1288-1296, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:36:y:2016:i:7:p:1288-1296
    DOI: 10.1111/risa.12655
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kimberly M. Thompson, 2006. "Poliomyelitis and the Role of Risk Analysis in Global Infectious Disease Policy and Management," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 26(6), pages 1419-1421, December.
    2. Radboud J. Duintjer Tebbens & Mark A. Pallansch & Dominika A. Kalkowska & Steven G. F. Wassilak & Stephen L. Cochi & Kimberly M. Thompson, 2013. "Characterizing Poliovirus Transmission and Evolution: Insights from Modeling Experiences with Wild and Vaccine‐Related Polioviruses," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(4), pages 703-749, April.
    3. Kimberly M. Thompson, 2016. "Evolution and Use of Dynamic Transmission Models for Measles and Rubella Risk and Policy Analysis," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(7), pages 1383-1403, July.
    4. Kimberly M. Thompson, 2013. "Modeling Poliovirus Risks and the Legacy of Polio Eradication," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(4), pages 505-515, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. van Ackere, Ann & Schulz, Peter J., 2020. "Explaining vaccination decisions: A system dynamics model of the interaction between epidemiological and behavioural factors," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    2. Kimberly M. Thompson, 2017. "Modeling and Managing the Risks of Measles and Rubella: A Global Perspective Part II," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(6), pages 1041-1051, June.

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