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Is Seeing Believing? Perceptions of Wildfire Risk Over Time

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  • Patricia A Champ
  • Hannah Brenkert‐Smith

Abstract

Ongoing challenges to understanding how hazard exposure and disaster experiences influence perceived risk lead us to ask: Is seeing believing? We approach risk perception by attending to two components of overall risk perception: perceived probability of an event occurring and perceived consequences if an event occurs. Using a two‐period longitudinal data set collected from a survey of homeowners living in a fire‐prone area of Colorado, we find that study participants’ initial high levels of perceived probability and consequences of a wildfire did not change substantially after extreme wildfire events in the intervening years. More specifically, perceived probability of a wildfire changed very little, whereas the perceived consequences of a wildfire went up a bit. In addition, models of risk perceptions show that the two components of overall risk perception are correlated with somewhat different factors, and experience is not found to be one of the strongest correlates with perceived risk. These results reflect the importance of distinguishing the components of overall risk and modeling them separately to facilitate additional insights into the complexities of risk perceptions, factors related to perceived risk, and change in risk perceptions over time.

Suggested Citation

  • Patricia A Champ & Hannah Brenkert‐Smith, 2016. "Is Seeing Believing? Perceptions of Wildfire Risk Over Time," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(4), pages 816-830, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:36:y:2016:i:4:p:816-830
    DOI: 10.1111/risa.12465
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    2. Alexa Tanner & Ryan Reynolds, 2020. "The near-miss of a tsunami and an emergency evacuation: the post-exposure effects on future emergency preparedness and evacuation intentions," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 104(2), pages 1679-1693, November.
    3. Jinan N. Allan & Joseph T. Ripberger & Wesley Wehde & Makenzie Krocak & Carol L. Silva & Hank C. Jenkins‐Smith, 2020. "Geographic Distributions of Extreme Weather Risk Perceptions in the United States," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(12), pages 2498-2508, December.
    4. Alló, M. & Loureiro, M.L., 2020. "Assessing preferences for wildfire prevention policies in Spain," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    5. Edgeley, Catrin M. & Paveglio, Travis B. & Williams, Daniel R., 2020. "Support for regulatory and voluntary approaches to wildfire adaptation among unincorporated wildland-urban interface communities," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    6. Shahir Masri & Erica Anne Shenoi & Dana Rose Garfin & Jun Wu, 2023. "Assessing Perception of Wildfires and Related Impacts among Adult Residents of Southern California," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(1), pages 1-15, January.
    7. Laura N. Rickard & Z. Janet Yang & Jonathon P. Schuldt & Gina M. Eosco & Clifford W. Scherer & Ricardo A. Daziano, 2017. "Sizing Up a Superstorm: Exploring the Role of Recalled Experience and Attribution of Responsibility in Judgments of Future Hurricane Risk," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(12), pages 2334-2349, December.
    8. Qin, Hua & Sanders, Christine & Prasetyo, Yanu & Syukron, Muh. & Prentice, Elizabeth, 2021. "Exploring the dynamic relationships between risk perception and behavior in response to the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 285(C).

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