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Observations and modelling of ground temperature evolution in the discontinuous permafrost zone in Nadym, north‐west Siberia

Author

Listed:
  • Ilmo T. Kukkonen
  • Elli Suhonen
  • Ekaterina Ezhova
  • Hanna Lappalainen
  • Victor Gennadinik
  • Olga Ponomareva
  • Andrey Gravis
  • Victoria Miles
  • Markku Kulmala
  • Vladimir Melnikov
  • Dmitry Drozdov

Abstract

We analyze ground temperatures measured daily at depths of 0–10 m in the Nadym region, north‐west Siberia (65°18′N, 72°6′E). Nadym is located within the discontinuous permafrost zone and the forest–tundra transition subzone, thus representing an area threatened by permafrost thawing. Soil comprises a 0.4–1.0‐m‐thick topmost layer of peat with high porosity (~0.9), underlain by layers of mineral soil (sand, clay, loam) with lower porosities of 0.3–0.4. With a numerical heat transfer model, we provide predictions of general permafrost development for the next 300 years. Furthermore, we apply the model with the same time frame, to predict permafrost evolution in two monitoring boreholes (BH) in the Nadym area, BH 1‐09 and 3‐09 with present (2012–2016) temperatures at the top of the permafrost (TTOP) of −2.0 and 0.0 °C, respectively. Applying a mild warming trend (0.02 °C/yr in mean annual air temperature [MAAT], corresponding to the IPCC representative concentration pathway trend RCP 2.6) does not lead to thawing of permafrost during the applied 300 years of simulation time in BH 1‐09, whereas in BH 3‐09 thawing has already begun. Applying a strong warming trend of 0.05 °C/yr in MAAT (corresponding to RCP 8.5) leads to gradual thawing of permafrost in both boreholes.

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  • Ilmo T. Kukkonen & Elli Suhonen & Ekaterina Ezhova & Hanna Lappalainen & Victor Gennadinik & Olga Ponomareva & Andrey Gravis & Victoria Miles & Markku Kulmala & Vladimir Melnikov & Dmitry Drozdov, 2020. "Observations and modelling of ground temperature evolution in the discontinuous permafrost zone in Nadym, north‐west Siberia," Permafrost and Periglacial Processes, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 31(2), pages 264-280, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:perpro:v:31:y:2020:i:2:p:264-280
    DOI: 10.1002/ppp.2040
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. V. E. Romanovsky & T. E. Osterkamp, 1995. "Interannual variations of the thermal regime of the active layer and near‐surface permafrost in northern Alaska," Permafrost and Periglacial Processes, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 6(4), pages 313-335, October.
    2. T. E. Osterkamp & V. E. Romanovsky, 1999. "Evidence for warming and thawing of discontinuous permafrost in Alaska," Permafrost and Periglacial Processes, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 10(1), pages 17-37, January.
    3. Kalerija A. Kondratjeva & Stanislav F. Khrutzky & Nikolai N. Romanovsky, 1993. "Changes in the extent of permafrost during the late quaternary period in the territory of the former Soviet Union," Permafrost and Periglacial Processes, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 4(2), pages 113-119, April.
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    1. Galina Malkova & Dmitry Drozdov & Alexander Vasiliev & Andrey Gravis & Gleb Kraev & Yuriy Korostelev & Kirill Nikitin & Pavel Orekhov & Olga Ponomareva & Vladimir Romanovsky & Marat Sadurtdinov & Alex, 2022. "Spatial and Temporal Variability of Permafrost in the Western Part of the Russian Arctic," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-19, March.
    2. Vladimir P. Melnikov & Victor I. Osipov & Anatoli V. Brouchkov & Svetlana V. Badina & Marat R. Sadurtdinov & Dmitry S. Drozdov & Galina V. Malkova & Mikhail N. Zheleznyak & Oleg V. Zhdaneev & Nikolay , 2022. "Past and Future of Permafrost Monitoring: Stability of Russian Energetic Infrastructure," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-17, April.

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